Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 17, 2018

November 17, 2018 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Charlie’s Affair 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Well’s Gold 4.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Paddy O’Lionel 3.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 Neon Sky 12.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Crooked as Can Be 4.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 T’ Cadeau 12.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Zippy 10.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Get It to Geaux 12.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Sand Pit Road 4.50 6.6 12-1
5 5 Uncle Nearis 12.00 6.6 13-1
7 7 Papa’s Boy 15.00 8.1 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Star Fitzstall 3.50 2.9 6-1
4 4 Boston Bind 4.50 3.6 7-1
1 1 Our Prince 6.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 King Bayou 6.00 4.4 8-1
10 10 Shang 4.00 5 9-1
2 2 He’s No Bully 20.00 6 11-1
6 6 Typhoon Tycoon 8.00 6.1 12-1
7 7 Greeley’s Banker 8.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Saint William 10.00 7.3 14-1
8 8 Senator Con 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Pilot House 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Heat Flash 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Grand Marais 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Mosta Flyin 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Point Hope 3.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Resilient Rick 3.50 2.6 5-1
7 7 Western Reserve 2.50 3.5 7-1
2 2 Itsthebourbontalkn 8.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Aubenas (FR) 10.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Ghurair 4.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 War Bond 12.00 5.9 11-1
11 10 Irish Proud 12.00 7 13-1
4 4 One Kind of Crazy 30.00 7.1 13-1
9 8 Senator Robert 20.00 7.2 14-1
10 9 Menewa 15.00 7.9 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Tiz a Gentleman 10.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Unrestricted 3.50 1.9 4-1
2 2 Calimambo 4.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Make Me Smile 5.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Shanghai Story 12.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Boston Repo 5.00 5.6 10-1
4 4 Half a Bite 12.00 6 11-1
5 5 Dream On Mister 12.00 6.1 12-1
11 10 Whiskey’s Gone 8.00 7 13-1
6 6 Nuggetsofknowledge 12.00 7.3 14-1
9 9 Kat’s Pop 20.00 8.4 16-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14 14 Temple City Star 12.00 SCRATCH
1A 16 Grove Daddy 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Cowboys Dream 8.00 SCRATCH
1 7 Whata Perfect Day 6.00 2.8 5-1
7 6 Bold Proposition 4.00 3.5 7-1
2 1 Ian Glass 6.00 3.6 7-1
4 3 Mensch 6.00 4.7 9-1
6 5 Oil Rubbed Bronze 8.00 5.2 10-1
3 2 Lovesomuch 12.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Centsmybabyleftme 8.00 6.6 12-1
10 10 Federal Dominance 8.00 7 13-1
5 4 Whatafind 20.00 8.1 15-1
13 13 Lethal Levy 10.00 8.5 16-1
11 11 Oro de Tejano 15.00 9.3 18-1
9 9 Mayhaw Jelly 20.00 9.9 19-1
12 12 Fever Temple 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Heitai Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Grande Basin 10.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Monte Man 1.60 2.1 4-1
2 2 Divine Bean 3.50 2.6 5-1
3 3 Jockamo’s Song 4.00 3.4 6-1
5 4 Cheers to Berti 8.00 4.8 9-1
7 6 Win Lion Win 6.00 4.9 9-1
6 5 Greeley Went West 8.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Alittlebitextra 3.50 3.6 7-1
4 4 Raising the Ante 4.50 3.7 7-1
1 1 Miss Bitters 6.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Miss Persistent 4.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Scat At Ms. Pat’s 6.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Customs in Dixie 4.50 5 9-1
3 3 Mamma Says 15.00 6 11-1
5 5 Timeformetofly 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Champagne Moment 2.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 Saints’ Girl 1.80 2.5 5-1
5 5 Tensas Thought 4.50 3.7 7-1
4 4 Suzie’s Dream 5.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Chases Dixie Belle 12.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Crimson Feline 8.00 5.3 10-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Fuhr a Slam 6.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Penny Coin Toss 1.40 3.1 6-1
1 1 Sweet Madalyna 12.00 3.4 6-1
5 4 Helen Wheels 5.00 3.8 7-1
8 7 Cherry Twist 4.50 4 8-1
2 2 Singing Ontherail 12.00 4.7 9-1
7 6 Paper Doll 8.00 5.1 10-1
4 3 Roman Bird 12.00 5.3 10-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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