November 17, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Dan the Go to Man | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Imma Bling | 1.60 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hard to Be Good | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | K J’s Nobility | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Torazo | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Shooters Alley | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Diamondcoat | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Evening Tide | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | She Might Tell | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Triple Kapalua | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | La Fee Verte | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Jordan’s Kitten | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sweetsongofthenile | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Believe Land | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Playful Union | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Woody’s Reward | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Holiday Storm | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Magical Peapod | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bless the Rains | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cassidy Ave | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gemlover | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Myositis Mystique | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Miss Shawhan | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Afoolsbrokenheart | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Native Wahoo | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Voodoothatyoudo | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | See the Bird | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Katie the Cutie | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Lusty Git Yer Gun | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sunrise Countessa | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Soul of Discretion | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Yankton | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Raising the Flag | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Gray Sky | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Trappezoid | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Little Kansas | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Ghost Story | 3.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Hurricane Dancer | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Better Charge It | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Come On Gerry | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lord Dragon | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Troy Ounce | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Declined | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stock Chain | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Laughing Bobby | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Roan Like the Wind | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Passion Play | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Three Twins | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Confection Fortune | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Mr Midtown | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Sharp Prospect | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Harvey Wallbanger | 1.60 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Booby Trap | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cowboys Dream | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Whata Show Off | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Napoleon’s Empire | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 9A | 9 | Bird Dog | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Reelfoot | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10A | 10 | High Sheriff | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Charles T | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Parade Field | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Taruca | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Ebben | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mr Darcy | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fascilitator | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bourbon Country | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Go Navy Go | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cabin John | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | The Gomper | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Tap Gun | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mylady Curlin | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dessert Honeys | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Auspicious Babe | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | True Dream | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Go Google Yourself | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Beach Waltz | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Miss Mimosa | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bo Peep | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sweet Arithmetic | 50.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – River City H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Master Merion | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Oscar Nominated | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Postulation | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 1 | Mr. Misunderstood | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Big Changes | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Team Colors | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Sir Dudley Digges | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Flatlined | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Frolic More | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wrath | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Equivocal | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Laughing Fox | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Old Sot | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Market King | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Run This Town | 5.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Eskenforit | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pow | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Awesome Tracker | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Heart of a Dreamer | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 10 | 10 | All in Stew Oui | 15.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.