November 17, 2018 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Marriage Fever | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | No Distortion | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sparty Boy | 1.60 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Old Upstart | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Becker’s Galaxy | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Toohottoevenspeak | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | The Queens Jules | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Dundalk | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Ghost Giant | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Snake Oil Charlie | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Whatstotalkabout | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 3 | Fuel the Bern | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 1 | Baseline | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Dragon Moon | 5.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Blinded Vision | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Special Story | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Fled | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Jump Ruler | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Sunset Ridge | 1.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Satisfy | 1.40 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Posse Needed | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tiznow’s Smile | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Fleet Warrior | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Le General | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Trip Ups | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kadens Courage | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Clear the Ramp | 5.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wisecrack | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bronx Bomber | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blindwillie McTell | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tazmonian Devil | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Cosita Mia | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Palladian Bridge | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Naples Princess | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Wisconsin Night | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Big Birthday | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Bluegrass Jamboree | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Electric Forest | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Hail | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Quivery | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pink Sands | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Barrier Island | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Okeamo | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Sandlot Star | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Causforcelebration | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Back of the Watch | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Theresa’s Boy | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Latin Love Bug | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Man of Chrome | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Freudian Analyst | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Neutral Zone | 30.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Adonis Creed | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Gucci Factor | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Argentic (FR) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11A | 11 | Night Prowler | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14A | 14 | The Red Dude | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Dr. Edgar | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Clyde’s Image | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 1 | Snap Decision | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 6 | Abiding Star | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 4 | Uncle Mojo | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 16 | 9 | Caledonian | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Lunaire | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Greek Alphabet | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 15 | 8 | Gypsum Johnny | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Holiday Bonus | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 7 | Ekhtibaar | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Red Smith S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Big Bend | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Special Envoy | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Inspector Lynley | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Bigger Picture | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Zulu Alpha | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Postulation | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Call Provision | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Adulator | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Focus Group | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Teodoro (IRE) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 6 | Exulting | 1.40 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Soglio | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 14 | 5 | Control Group | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 13 | 4 | Red Knight | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Village King (ARG) | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Galope Americano (BRZ) | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Cross Multiply | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Thefinalcrazydude | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Unsullied | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ninja Boys | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Holycowits Patrick | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | No Hitter | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ridolfo | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Playboy Johnny | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Well in Tune | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Golden Sequence | 50.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.