Sports from the Basement

Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, November 17, 2018

November 17, 2018 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Marriage Fever 2.50 2.9 5-1
1 1 No Distortion 6.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Sparty Boy 1.60 3.5 7-1
3 3 Old Upstart 4.50 3.7 7-1
2 2 Becker’s Galaxy 3.50 4 8-1
6 6 Toohottoevenspeak 12.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 The Queens Jules 4.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Dundalk 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Ghost Giant 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Snake Oil Charlie 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Whatstotalkabout 3.50 SCRATCH
6 3 Fuel the Bern 2.00 2.2 4-1
4 1 Baseline 12.00 3.5 7-1
5 2 Dragon Moon 5.00 4 7-1
11 6 Blinded Vision 6.00 4 8-1
10 5 Special Story 12.00 4.1 8-1
7 4 Fled 20.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Jump Ruler 12.00 SCRATCH
4 3 Sunset Ridge 1.00 2.2 4-1
3 2 Satisfy 1.40 2.5 5-1
1 1 Posse Needed 10.00 3.6 7-1
5 4 Tiznow’s Smile 4.00 3.7 7-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Fleet Warrior 12.00 SCRATCH
9 8 Le General 1.60 2.3 4-1
4 4 Trip Ups 3.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Kadens Courage 6.00 3.7 7-1
8 7 Clear the Ramp 5.00 4 7-1
3 3 Wisecrack 15.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Bronx Bomber 15.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Blindwillie McTell 10.00 5.8 11-1
7 6 Tazmonian Devil 20.00 7.4 14-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Cosita Mia 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Palladian Bridge 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Naples Princess 4.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Wisconsin Night 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Big Birthday 8.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Bluegrass Jamboree 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Electric Forest 3.50 2.4 5-1
8 5 Hail 5.00 3 6-1
4 4 Quivery 20.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Pink Sands 8.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Barrier Island 12.00 4.6 9-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Okeamo 1.60 SCRATCH
5 4 Sandlot Star 2.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Causforcelebration 8.00 3.5 7-1
6 5 Back of the Watch 4.50 3.8 7-1
8 7 Theresa’s Boy 12.00 4.1 8-1
7 6 Latin Love Bug 6.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Man of Chrome 20.00 5.5 10-1
4 3 Freudian Analyst 30.00 6.3 12-1
9 8 Neutral Zone 30.00 6.6 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Adonis Creed 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Gucci Factor 3.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Argentic (FR) 12.00 SCRATCH
11A 11 Night Prowler 4.50 SCRATCH
14A 14 The Red Dude 4.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Dr. Edgar 2.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Clyde’s Image 8.00 SCRATCH
3 1 Snap Decision 6.00 2.4 5-1
12 6 Abiding Star 10.00 3.6 7-1
9 4 Uncle Mojo 8.00 3.9 7-1
16 9 Caledonian 8.00 5 9-1
7 3 Lunaire 12.00 5.3 10-1
5 2 Greek Alphabet 15.00 5.5 10-1
15 8 Gypsum Johnny 12.00 6.1 12-1
10 5 Holiday Bonus 20.00 6.3 12-1
13 7 Ekhtibaar 15.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Red Smith S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Big Bend 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Special Envoy 30.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Inspector Lynley 4.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Bigger Picture 5.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Zulu Alpha 2.50 SCRATCH
10 10 Postulation 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Call Provision 3.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Adulator 4.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Focus Group 3.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Teodoro (IRE) 12.00 SCRATCH
15 6 Exulting 1.40 2.4 4-1
5 3 Soglio 10.00 2.8 5-1
14 5 Control Group 2.00 3 6-1
13 4 Red Knight 15.00 4.4 8-1
2 1 Village King (ARG) 15.00 4.5 8-1
4 2 Galope Americano (BRZ) 20.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Cross Multiply 4.50 2.8 5-1
4 4 Thefinalcrazydude 3.50 3 6-1
9 9 Unsullied 2.00 3 6-1
5 5 Ninja Boys 6.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Holycowits Patrick 8.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 No Hitter 6.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Ridolfo 20.00 6.1 12-1
8 8 Playboy Johnny 20.00 6.9 13-1
10 10 Well in Tune 30.00 7.9 15-1
7 7 Golden Sequence 50.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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