Sports from the Basement

Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 16, 2018

November 16, 2018 Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Round Quarter 2.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Jojogottago 3.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Yakadaddy 5.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Major Ridge 4.50 4 8-1
3 3 No More for U 15.00 5 10-1
7 7 Ronda’s Custom 12.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Cheap Shot 6.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Clever Prince 15.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Meraki 4.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Bank On Andy (FR) 2.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Samargo 6.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Rollwithit 4.00 4 7-1
3 3 One Million 8.00 4 8-1
7 7 They Call Me Seb 4.50 4.9 9-1
5 5 Iron Grip 8.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Purest Pleasure 20.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Perfect Saint 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Candy Carlos 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 He’s Dann Good 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Theoryintopractice 1.80 1.8 3-1
4 3 Gustnado 4.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Tachi 15.00 4.8 9-1
6 5 Red Corvette 6.00 4.8 9-1
8 7 Cadet Captain 8.00 5.4 10-1
9 8 Thunderberg 6.00 5.9 11-1
5 4 Large Scale 20.00 6.5 12-1
7 6 Starship 20.00 7.3 14-1
12 11 Sunrise Hawk 15.00 7.5 14-1
10 9 Moon Over Cuzco 20.00 7.9 15-1
11 10 Briar Jumper 20.00 8.8 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 El Jake O 4.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Mayor Mac 3.50 2.2 4-1
1 1 Sammy Wonder Stone 6.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Wildwood Dejavu 8.00 4.3 8-1
9 8 Whoz Talkin Now 4.00 4.4 8-1
8 7 Say Charlie 4.50 5.1 10-1
6 5 Leftfieldjunction 10.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Pink Twice 50.00 5.9 11-1
7 6 Piranha Tough 12.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Lady Worthington 1.80 2.8 5-1
4 4 Explorationist 4.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Sam the Man 10.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Yabba Dabba Dude 8.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Maximum Factor 10.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Hidden Data 12.00 5.4 10-1
10 10 Vivid Verse 6.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 Warriors Gem 10.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Onarock 12.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Smithwick 15.00 7.6 14-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 North Hullen 4.50 3.8 7-1
8 8 Outback Jack 3.50 3.8 7-1
4 4 Fire Lake 4.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Brave Benny 12.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Ed’s Rocket 6.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Chase the Bling 12.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Il Est Vite 8.00 6 11-1
9 9 Wicked Stride 6.00 6 11-1
6 6 Wicked Proud 12.00 7.5 14-1
10 10 Mr. Nine Five Four 20.00 8.2 16-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Mr. Sulu Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Sir Genghis 5.00 2.9 5-1
7 7 Ninety One Assault 4.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 In the Navy 6.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Mageez 8.00 5 9-1
9 9 Autumn Warrior 8.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Morning Mischief 10.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Berniestrike 15.00 7 13-1
10 10 Magic Vow 8.00 7.4 14-1
11 11 Gladyousawme 8.00 7.4 14-1
8 8 Eden Grey’s Kitten 15.00 7.9 15-1
4 4 Pursuit of a Dream 20.00 8 15-1
12 12 Grande Basin 10.00 8.6 16-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Flashy Brew 4.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Charge the Line 3.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Swinging Greeley 12.00 4.2 8-1
8 8 Discreetly D 3.50 4.7 9-1
5 5 Cayenne 4.50 4.8 9-1
3 3 Absolut Neworleans 12.00 5 10-1
6 6 Logan’s Reward 10.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Star Yankee 12.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 Vapor Viper 12.00 7.7 14-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Drinking Dixie 4.50 SCRATCH
14 14 Amandrea 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Sacred Lady 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Ravenel 20.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Fortunate Girl 4.50 2.9 5-1
6 6 Mary Celeste 3.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Calaveras 8.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Michel It’s Autum 12.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Prado’s Encore 5.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Sissy’s Kitten 8.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 British Invader (GB) 12.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Color Fashioned 20.00 7.4 14-1
10 10 Tupelo Hon E 12.00 7.9 15-1
8 8 Reconsider 20.00 8.3 16-1
13 12 Metry Kitten 12.00 9.3 18-1
12 11 Cry Like a Baby 20.00 10.1 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement providesĀ no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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