November 16, 2018 Delta Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tax Money | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Zarla | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sassy Pants Susie | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Smell the Rain | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | I Call | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sweet Silver | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Little Tator Tot | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Nelly Relly | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Louisiana Lily | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Stakes) – Treasure Chest S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Sure Thing Sheila | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Al’s Gal | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Babybluesbdancing | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Americium | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Inspeightof | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Testing One Two | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fleet Halo | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Pure Valor | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Brutalize | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Halostar | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | My Hero Pappy | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Pat Me Down | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Izzy’s Baby Boy | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | The Flush King | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Titanium Pledge | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Hooray Austin | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Saponi | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Icy Willie | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Cajun Pinata | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Kiss Him Twice | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Valse | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Thiscatsatalkin | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Big Storm Coming | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Just Run Skiny Run | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Devil’s Pay | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Killingit | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Theboyzgrand Kis | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Passing Simon | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Z Pride | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Karslyn | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | A Toast to Gertie | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cat’s Hit | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Space Cowgirl | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Sarah’s Prayer | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Wildcat Beauty | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Agirlnamedsyd | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Perfect for Me | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Baby B Gone | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Jacob Rocks | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Hardly Seen Slim | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Alpha Bravo | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Nastida Mast | 2.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dewey’s Sunshine | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hustle N Jive | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Clancy’s Pepper | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Two Mikes N Doc G | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Valid Prospector | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Personal Conflict | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Will Burn Tails | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Frolic | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sarge’s Daughter | 1.80 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Honest Tina | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Overthegardengate | 3.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Our Sweet Sydni | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rachael’s Kiss | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Social Doll | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Louisiana Jewel S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Silvercents | 1.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cohenscollegefund | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Goodprofit | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | D’rockette | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Angeles | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fortune Got Even | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | King Formeredith | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | V Double U | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Ida’s Warrior | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mr. Nasty Time | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Lightning Lewis | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ellerbe | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Chuck’s Quest | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fireman Isaac Max | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lougarou | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cool Production | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Atdabarwithmerrill | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Halos Prayer | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Send Her Marie | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Blowin Your Mind | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Becky’s Dude | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lady Belacqua | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | You Have a Point | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Honey Hearts | 1.60 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Paloma Belle | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Running Unbridled | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Risen Cork | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Casey’s Doll | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Red Light Zone | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cee’s Memory | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.