November 11, 2018 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Bustin Free | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Karabessa | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Infatuation | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ok Honey | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ash n’ Em | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Congrats Ellen | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Big Brown Cat | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Fillet of Sole | 1.60 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ride On Faith | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Best Surprise | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Go Big Or Go Home | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Money Illusion | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fun Prospect | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | One River Place | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Mohican | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Heavy Meddle | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tale of Mist | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Asterisk | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Playwright | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dooley | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Canoochee | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Eight Minute Ellie | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Way Smart | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Millie’s Journey | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Laura’s Patriot | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Shanghai Glory | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Sweet Connie Girl | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 14 | 8 | Free Kitty | 2.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Sheputaspellonme | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 7 | Rag Top | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Votre Coeur | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Alley to Calvary | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Bidding Circle | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Goodnight Moon | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Just Right | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Strong One | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Riken | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Pipes | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Durkin’s Call | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Americano | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Aikenetta | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Best Performance | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Pink Sands | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Untaken | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Held Accountable | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Goodbye Brockley | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Munchkin Money | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Brattata | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vortex Road | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | War Canoe | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Cilantro | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Shalailah (IRE) | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gondora (GER) | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Initiate | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Remarqued | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Too Charming | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | John Jones | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Doyouknowsomething | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Outplay | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Daddy D T | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Langdarma | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hardly a Secret | 4.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Mills | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Rocky Tough | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Stewart Manor S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Music of Life | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Monette (FR) | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Dragic | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Regal Glory | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Introduced | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Brooke Marie | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Guacamole | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Red Hot Dame | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tradeable | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Jaded Lady | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Shak’s Hidden Gem | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – New York Stallion Series S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Highway Star | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Frost Wise | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Frostie Anne | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fair Regis | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Andesine | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Starlite Mission | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Frosty Margarita | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bluegrass Flag | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Our Super Nova | 50.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | She’s Delightful | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Aunt Babe | 50.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.