November 8, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Ambidextrous Alex | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Swamp Ruler | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | I’m in a Hurry | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Royal Squeeze | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Who Cares | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mutation | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Gifted Justice | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Esposito | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Emmett’s Dream | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Rumandice | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Delcapem | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Champagne Tale | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Positive Spirit | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Beautiful Ballad | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Final Cut | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Shacklette | 5.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Courtesy Notice | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Spackle | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Cisco Bay | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Dedicated | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | It Is Dejavu | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lead Astray | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Teletap | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Fortythreeoeight N | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mighty Ghost | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Hawk | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Top Credentials | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tizabreeze | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Discreetness | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Pitch Count | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Hay Dakota | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Zambian | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cowboy Culture | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lanier | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Patrick’s Day | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hollywood Critic | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Aristomaches | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Aktabantay (GB) | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Nileator | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Plug Catcher | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Cutler | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Electric Avenue | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Because It’s Time | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | How’s My Bud | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Fearless Kitty | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Out of the Office | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Florida Boys | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bluegrass Gem | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mun Up | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Kiss My Note | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Harlan’s Dynamo | 10.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Citizen Cesar | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Conquistador | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Loup | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Break the Deal | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Debating | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Riverboat Gambler | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rare Form | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Always Cool | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Shining Knight | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Kansas City Zip | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Forestry’s Buddy | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Sgt Jack T Moffitt | 50.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Shackleford County | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Even Beat | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Jordan’s Kitten | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Lucky Move | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Kitten’s Slew | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bella Belle | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Market Top | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Soft Cheese | 3.50 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | In a Flury | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Lady Beware (IRE) | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Rollover Risk | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tiz Taken Back | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Givemeaminit | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Eagle Dance | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rubus | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Examiner | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tap Master | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Proximus | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mojo Man | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Gris Gris | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Shea’s Cool | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Go Google Yourself | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Stave | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | May Lily | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Phantom Opening | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Smart Shot | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Savour the Moment | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | C. S. Incharge | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Due to His Charm | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Union Bowman | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tensweep | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mark My Way | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Aviator Parks | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hot Dad | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Frost Or Frippery | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Ferocious Tiger (FR) | 5.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Benediction | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Aitutaki | 5.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Joey B | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Red Again | 20.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.