November 8, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Ambidextrous Alex 30.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Swamp Ruler 5.00 SCRATCH
2 1 I’m in a Hurry 3.50 2.3 4-1
5 4 Royal Squeeze 4.50 3.7 7-1
8 6 Who Cares 4.00 4 7-1
3 2 Mutation 8.00 4.1 8-1
4 3 Gifted Justice 6.00 4.4 8-1
9 7 Esposito 4.50 4.8 9-1
7 5 Emmett’s Dream 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Rumandice 2.50 3.6 7-1
1 1 Delcapem 6.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Champagne Tale 5.00 4 8-1
8 8 Positive Spirit 3.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Beautiful Ballad 10.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Final Cut 12.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 Shacklette 5.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Courtesy Notice 20.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Spackle 10.00 6.5 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Cisco Bay 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Dedicated 5.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 It Is Dejavu 6.00 4 8-1
3 3 Lead Astray 5.00 4.1 8-1
9 8 Teletap 3.00 4.2 8-1
8 7 Fortythreeoeight N 4.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Mighty Ghost 6.00 4.9 9-1
10 9 Hawk 8.00 6.5 12-1
7 6 Top Credentials 30.00 6.6 12-1
6 5 Tizabreeze 20.00 6.7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Discreetness 5.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Pitch Count 3.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Hay Dakota 4.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Zambian 3.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Cowboy Culture 4.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Lanier 12.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Patrick’s Day 5.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Hollywood Critic 12.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Aristomaches 15.00 6.1 11-1
7 7 Aktabantay (GB) 10.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Nileator 5.00 6.3 12-1
9 9 Plug Catcher 20.00 8.3 16-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Cutler 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Electric Avenue 6.00 3.6 7-1
8 7 Because It’s Time 3.50 4 8-1
7 6 How’s My Bud 4.00 4.3 8-1
4 3 Fearless Kitty 8.00 4.4 8-1
5 4 Out of the Office 8.00 4.8 9-1
9 8 Florida Boys 6.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Bluegrass Gem 15.00 5.4 10-1
6 5 Mun Up 10.00 6.2 12-1
10 9 Kiss My Note 15.00 8.1 15-1
12 11 Harlan’s Dynamo 10.00 8.4 16-1
11 10 Citizen Cesar 20.00 9.5 18-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Conquistador 2.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Loup 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Break the Deal 30.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Debating 2.50 2.2 4-1
5 4 Riverboat Gambler 4.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Rare Form 8.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Always Cool 12.00 4.4 8-1
8 7 Shining Knight 10.00 4.7 9-1
7 6 Kansas City Zip 15.00 5.6 11-1
6 5 Forestry’s Buddy 20.00 5.9 11-1
10 8 Sgt Jack T Moffitt 50.00 7.4 14-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Shackleford County 3.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Even Beat 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Jordan’s Kitten 20.00 SCRATCH
6 5 Lucky Move 3.00 3.3 6-1
2 1 Kitten’s Slew 5.00 3.9 7-1
8 7 Bella Belle 3.50 3.9 7-1
4 3 Market Top 8.00 4.6 9-1
9 8 Soft Cheese 3.50 5 10-1
3 2 In a Flury 20.00 5.6 11-1
10 9 Lady Beware (IRE) 5.00 5.8 11-1
7 6 Rollover Risk 15.00 6.4 12-1
5 4 Tiz Taken Back 20.00 6.5 12-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Givemeaminit 2.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Eagle Dance 4.50 3.5 7-1
5 5 Rubus 3.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Examiner 3.50 3.7 7-1
2 2 Tap Master 6.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Proximus 6.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Mojo Man 12.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Gris Gris 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Shea’s Cool 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Go Google Yourself 2.00 SCRATCH
4 3 Stave 2.50 2.6 5-1
3 2 May Lily 3.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Phantom Opening 8.00 3.5 7-1
5 4 Smart Shot 3.00 4 8-1
6 5 Savour the Moment 6.00 4.2 8-1
8 6 C. S. Incharge 10.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Due to His Charm 5.00 3.6 7-1
5 5 Union Bowman 5.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Tensweep 4.50 4.7 9-1
2 2 Mark My Way 15.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Aviator Parks 4.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Hot Dad 8.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Frost Or Frippery 20.00 6.9 13-1
12 12 Ferocious Tiger (FR) 5.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 Benediction 30.00 7.3 14-1
11 11 Aitutaki 5.00 7.5 14-1
9 9 Joey B 15.00 7.9 15-1
7 7 Red Again 20.00 8.2 16-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.