November 2, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Mo’s M V P | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Enthrall | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dutch Parrot | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sweet Legacy | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Stronger Than Ever | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dorodansa | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Helluva Life | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Admire | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Chess Chief | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Captain Von Trapp | 2.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Speed App | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Straight Shot | 6.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 1A | 10 | Aw Naw | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Jack Van Berg | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Midnight Curfew | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Maya Solomea | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Gray Attempt | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Casses Story | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | M G Warrior | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Patch | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Archanova | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | J Boys Echo | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Heavy Roller | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Westerland (GB) | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Racer | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Casino Star | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Shareholder Value | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Street Sense S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Improbable | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Trophy Chaser | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Manny Wah | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Distant Shore | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Unionizer | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Marquee Prince | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Moonster | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Louder Than Bombs | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Reward the Miracle | 15.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | Legends of War | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Van Beethoven | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Shang Shang Shang | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Comedy (IRE) | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Strike Silver | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Soldier’s Call (GB) | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Well Done Fox (GB) | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sergei Prokofiev | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bulletin | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Chelsea Cloisters | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Moonlight Romance | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stillwater Cove | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | So Perfect | 12.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Queen of Bermuda (IRE) | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Pocket Dynamo | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Big Drink of Water | 30.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | Winning Envelope | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Pivottina (FR) | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Concrete Rose | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Just Wonderful | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Newspaperofrecord (IRE) | 2.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | The Mackem Bullet (IRE) | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lily’s Candle (FR) | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | La Pelosa (IRE) | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Pakhet | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Belle Laura | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Summering | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Varenka | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Stellar Agent | 30.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | My Gal Betty | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | East (GB) | 20.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Lady Prancealot (IRE) | 30.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Tito’s Handmade Vodka Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Serengeti Empress | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Vibrance | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Restless Rider | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Bellafina | 2.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Jaywalk | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Reflect | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cassies Dreamer | 30.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sippican Harbor | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Baby Nina | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Splashy Kisses | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Tracksmith | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Order and Law | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Forty Under | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Much Better | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Henley’s Joy | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Line of Duty (IRE) | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Anthony Van Dyck (IRE) | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Current | 5.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Uncle Benny | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | King of Speed | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Somelikeithotbrown | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Arthur Kitt (GB) | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | War of Will | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Opry | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Marie’s Diamond (IRE) | 20.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | The Black Album (FR) | 30.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Code of Honor | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Dueling | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Complexity | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Game Winner | 1.60 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Gunmetal Gray | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Standard Deviation | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Money | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Well Defined | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Derby Date | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mind Control | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tight Ten | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 14 | 13 | Signalman | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Knicks Go | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Topper T | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Marathon S. Presented By Taa
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Imperative | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Dabster | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | War Story | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Term of Art | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Honorable Duty | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Rocketry | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Big Dollar Bill | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Finglas | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Toast of New York | 4.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Senior Investment | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.