October 31, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Fra Mauro | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Courage and Honor | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Eclipsed Moon | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wild Road | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Hero’s Welcome | 2.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | High Beam | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Blue Mesa | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Soul of the Hero | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Our Alibi | 20.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Flash n’ Dance | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kantastic | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Weneedtotalk | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bella Verde | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | To Much Chitchat | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Unprovoked | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Pass the Gravy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Drop Kick | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Nuclear Option | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Fascilitator | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Will’s Pioneer | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Jacktastic | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Horse Sense | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | U. S. Currency | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mo’s Song | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Charlotte Marie | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | More Mojo | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Data Star | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ruby Roan | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Believe in Victory | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lake Barkley | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Alexa’s Gold | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Dahik | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Amani’s Kitten | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Jefazo | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wild Will | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Quenlenny | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Math Major | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gasaway | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Civil | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pray for Kitten | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Back Page | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | All Hands On Deck | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Starlin | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Hellofaguy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Grandpa Knows Best | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Awesome Times Two | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Huntin Buddy | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Come On Dover | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Round Hill | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Risky Town | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sunrise Hawk | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | B Dubya | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | West Texas | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Flat Out Beautiful | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Halo Friend | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | She Love Me | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jazz It Up | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jay Vee Bee | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Seventy Seventycat | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Clench | 4.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | The Kid in Syd | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Equus Novus | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Just in Tee | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Person to Person | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Boss Dixie | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Knocks Big Thirst | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | His Giant | 15.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Tour d’Argent | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Bridaled Temper | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Moonlight Rain | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Mo Justice | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Cured by Kitten | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Don’t Tell Marge | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Emmy Performance | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | She Doesn’t Mind (FR) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Ellens Birthday | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Rollover Risk | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 2 | Cash Out | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 3 | Tell Your Mama | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Nantucket Red | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 4 | No Fault | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Clouded Judgement | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Copper Bullet | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Shangroyal | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Midwest Justice | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Driven by History | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Barry Lee | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bourne in Nixa | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Best of Greeley | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Ebben | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Adios Cat | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Spearette | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Native Wahoo | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Seeking Bull | 3.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Commercial Appeal | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Haute Prospect | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | See the Bird | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Winners Expedition | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ticket to Riches | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Seattle Sass | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.