October 28, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Shacklette | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lunar Orbit | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | I’mabarnkat | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | J D’s Girl | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Seaside Dancer | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kiss More | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Arbitress | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Irish Oak | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | The Sicarii | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Thousand Percent | 1.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lady’s Weekend | 15.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Collection | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Charge to Victory | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Intonation | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Khairiya | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Grams Future | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | New Roo | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Beautiful Tale | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Factor Around | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cairo Cutie | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Alin Azul | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Golden Jasmine | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Final Cut | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Support | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Woodfin | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Ariska | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Stormy Memo | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Girl At War (IRE) | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | To the Moon N Back | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Full Swing | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Flying the Colors | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Born to Shop | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Julia’s Ready | 6.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Michel It’s Autum | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | British Invader (GB) | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sundaysatthebeach | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Freedom Passage | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Liora | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | In Charge Annie | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | She’s Got It All | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Still Here | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Storm Stride | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bossy Bride | 6.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Armony’s Angel | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hetty G. | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Artistic | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Singita Dreams | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Blue Steel | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Proud Nation | 2.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Queen’s Bird | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Frolic More | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Drummond | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | R One | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pantherus Leo | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mr Midtown | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Award Winner | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Battalstown | 50.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Drilliant | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | He’s No Lemon | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Freemore | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16A | 16 | Twelfth Labour | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Troy Ounce | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Dry Lake | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Skychief | 1.20 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Afleet Moment | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Counter Offer | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Social Currency (KOR) | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8A | 7 | Agitator | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Uptown Ruler | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Moscow Minister | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Kitten’s Spa | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Candizar | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Parade Field | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Rags To Riches S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | My Wynter Rose | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Love My Honey | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Mother Mother | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Take Charge Angel | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Into Mystic | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Princesa Carolina | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | High Regard | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Chocolate Kisses | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Molto Bella | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Stage Left | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Everfast | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Moon Colony | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Owendale | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | More Than A. P. | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tiergan | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Roiland | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jais’s Solitude | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Vangilder | 12.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Overanalyzer | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Limonite | 10.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Yodel E. A. Who | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Stayonthegrind | 50.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Spendthrift Juvenile Stallion S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Achilles Warrior | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | B. B. Dude | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Distorted Jimmy | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Casa Creed | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dunph | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gentle Warrior | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Into the South | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kajawa | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Naughty Joker | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Harvey Wallbanger | 1.20 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | King Ford | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Johny’s Bobby | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Night Ops | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Quicksilver | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Gun It | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 7A | 7 | Stock Chain | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Defender | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 10A | 10 | Bird Dog | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Oh Bene | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Grandgran | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.