October 21, 2018 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tax | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dictator | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Allegiance | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Clipboard Money | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | It’s Game Time | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Galindo | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shoeless | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Kahramani | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Li’l J | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bud’s Bayonet | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ambidextrous Alex | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Flying Frank | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Two If by Sea | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Mayor Mac | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mark My Way | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cataroux | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Handiwork | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Court’s Ruling | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Lovesomuch | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Whata Perfect Day | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Whatafind | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Agitator | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Noble Nebraskan | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Twelfthofneverland | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kathak | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Big City | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Half Shot | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Diplome | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | El Ahijado | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Bluegrass Parkway | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Tuaandtwentysix | 8.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Plumb Line | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Fine Tune | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Twice Please | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Title Ready | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rugbyman | 2.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Eisenstaedt | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Zanesville | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lone Rock | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Fort Peck | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bal Harbour | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Front Door | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Ipanema Beach | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mo Moxie | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Smile More | 2.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | She Is Bedazzling | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Stargirl | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Snuck Out | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Seeds of Time | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | St. Louise | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tripple Step | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Goldberry | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Nootka Sound | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Thoughtless | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 2 | Spellker | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Excessivespending | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Luvin Bullies | 15.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Miss O’Hara | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Natural Wonder | 5.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Boom Bam Bing | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Crazy Sweet | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Sweet Angel Roan | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Mylady Curlin | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | C. S. Incharge | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Toasted | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Inspeightofyou | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Red Dane (ITY) | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Miss Mimosa | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Oh So Terrible | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fuerza | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Awesome Gal | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Rood And Riddle Dowager S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Rahway | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Daring Duchess | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Viva Vegas | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | English Affair | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Amboseli | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Vexatious | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Res Ipsa | 6.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Savannah Belle | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Shezaprado | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Beach Flower | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Mun Up | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Grateful Cause | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Paddy’s Notes | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | How’s My Bud | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Run to Freedom | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Reeder | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Swamp Ruler | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tiz Funny | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | She Read My Texts | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ceejay’s Mister | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Emmett’s Dream | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Street Factor | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.