October 17, 2018 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Concord Coupe | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Mine Mine Mine | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Pinotage | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Holiday Storm | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Summer Lovin | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Millville | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Miss Brenda | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Smokin Ash | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Queen Jeanne | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ridgeline Hope | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tres Mas | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Talk Game | 30.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | My Peeps | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Krissys Manicure | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Arch Arch Baby | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | What What What | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ivy’s College Fund | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Radiantrithym | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Proud Dixie | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | He’s the Souperwon | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Lake Nakuru | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Half Shot | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Merlin’s Song | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Whatafind | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Love Point | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Fake Solution | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cowboys Dream | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Post Close | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fluellen | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Game Day Decision | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | War Film | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Dollar Blue | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Temple City Star | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | No Picture Charlie | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Fast Data | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Seeking Bull | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Sun Dress | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Native Wonder | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Katie the Cutie | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Miss Shawhan | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Quality Street | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Soaring Now | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | I. Damiana | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Spanish Arch | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Commercial Appeal | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Spearette | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Blame the Dream | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ticket to Riches | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Native Wahoo | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Heronetta | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Discreetness | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Capital Letters | 10.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | All About Ashley | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Rich Daddy | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Shareholder Value | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Langdarma | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | One Mean Man | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hollywood Critic | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Jerrid | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Vaporman | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Welovecandy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Belgian | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sharm El Sheikh | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Totally Boss | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Linburgh’s Kitten | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Snapper Sinclair | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Royal Commish | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tommytom | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Student Body Left | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Savage Battle | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Bingwa | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Thunderous Gem | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Fightress | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Bell’s the One | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Abaco Dream | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Marvelous Martina | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Midnight Karma | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Syllable | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Street Band | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Melrose Inn | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Next Dance | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Discovered | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Sekondi | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Ghost Story | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Blue Lute | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gostisbehere | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Yourdecisionotmine | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mr Darcy | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Create Again | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hello Holiday | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bacoli | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hey Big Guy | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Cruz Diez | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.