October 13, 2018 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 My Dream 2.50 2.9 5-1
3 3 Somebody’s Beau 4.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Zartastic 4.50 4.3 8-1
1 1 Trouble Coffee 6.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Purr Cat 4.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Hurry Back 20.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Mjolnir 5.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Gottsacker 15.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 San Elijo 3.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Halite 3.50 2.4 5-1
4 4 Forgotten Coast 3.50 3.2 6-1
3 3 Thegistofit 5.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 I’ve Got Heart 8.00 4.4 8-1
7 6 One More Tom 5.00 4.4 8-1
6 5 Lead Astray 6.00 5 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Control Stake 4.00 2.4 5-1
2 2 Sevier 4.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Copper Town 1.60 3.5 7-1
3 3 Heavy Roller 4.50 3.9 7-1
4 4 Spikes Shirl 6.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Icatiro 6.00 5.7 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Equus Novus 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Gozer the Gozerian 3.50 2.7 5-1
2 2 Leroy Be Thy Name 4.50 3.1 6-1
5 4 Wings Up 4.50 3.6 7-1
1 1 Birdmeister 6.00 4 8-1
8 7 Sambucca 5.00 4.9 9-1
7 6 Flion Lynn Lion 6.00 5.3 10-1
6 5 Gottageauxgeauxgo 20.00 6.6 12-1
9 8 Chirk 8.00 6.7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Tiz Taken Back 30.00 SCRATCH
1 1 I Got the Boy 3.50 3.1 6-1
3 3 Even Beat 3.50 3.7 7-1
8A 7 Moolah Schmoolah 2.50 4 8-1
2 2 Stay Anchored 6.00 4.3 8-1
6 5 Holly Go Lightly 5.00 4.6 9-1
10A 9 She Doesn’t Mind (FR) 2.50 5.2 10-1
4 4 Trivial 12.00 5.4 10-1
7 6 In a Flury 15.00 7 13-1
9 8 Shezappealing 15.00 7.7 15-1
11 10 Sarabi 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 1 Lady Boots 5.00 SCRATCH
2 1 Santino 5.00 2.6 5-1
3 2 Broome 1.60 2.6 5-1
4 3 Our Girl Abby 3.00 3 6-1
6 5 Diamondcoat 12.00 5.2 10-1
7 6 To Much Chitchat 12.00 5.4 10-1
8A 7 Honor With Pride 5.00 5.5 10-1
9 8 Our Graycious Girl 12.00 6.7 13-1
5 4 Lemon Drop Twist 20.00 6.8 13-1
10 9 Charmin Dixie 12.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14A 14 Bird Dog 10.00 SCRATCH
2A 2 Stock Chain 10.00 SCRATCH
5 4 Explorationist 4.00 3.3 6-1
4 3 Hawaiian Noises 8.00 4 8-1
1 1 Soap Bubble 6.00 4.2 8-1
11 10 Tapit Wise 3.50 4.7 9-1
7 6 Declined 10.00 5.7 11-1
3 2 Uncapped 15.00 5.7 11-1
10 9 Bourbon Calling 4.50 5.9 11-1
6 5 B P Rocket 15.00 6.3 12-1
9 8 Clench 10.00 7.1 13-1
8 7 City Siege 15.00 7.7 15-1
12 11 Ourbestfriend D L 15.00 9.8 19-1
13 12 Straight Shot 15.00 10.1 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Foxtrot Sally 5.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Upset Brewing 3.50 4.2 8-1
6 6 Trace 5.00 4.7 9-1
10 10 Treasure in Heaven 3.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 As I Please 20.00 6.1 11-1
2 2 Bella Verde 30.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Socata 15.00 6.3 12-1
11 11 Quick Quick Quick 5.00 6.4 12-1
8 8 Trust 10.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 The Girl Factor 12.00 7 13-1
5 5 Unprovoked 20.00 7.7 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Queen Elizabeth Ii Challenge Cup S. Presented By Lane’s End

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Daddy Is a Legend 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Nyaleti (IRE) 5.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Fatale Bere (FR) 5.00 3.4 6-1
8 7 Rushing Fall 1.40 3.9 7-1
5 4 Mission Impassible (IRE) 6.00 4 8-1
2 2 Princess Warrior 15.00 4.9 9-1
7 6 Capla Temptress (IRE) 8.00 5.4 10-1
6 5 Secret Message 12.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14A 14 Valentine Wish 5.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Last Promise Kept 3.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Now Power 4.50 3.2 6-1
2 2 Dynatail 4.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Mo Knows 6.00 3.9 7-1
6A 6 Youngest Daughter 5.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 You Cheated 5.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Blue Collar 20.00 6.6 12-1
8 8 Vagabond Princess 6.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Smart Emma 6.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Na Pali Spirit 8.00 7.5 14-1
12 12 Dagney’s Warrior 6.00 8.1 15-1
9 9 Dutch Parrot 20.00 8.8 17-1
11 11 Crafty’s Way 20.00 10.1 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.