October 12, 2018 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Wildwood Dancer | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Elwood’s Advice | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Town Classic | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pitch Count | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dupree | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ironclad | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shooters Alley | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Forze Mau (VEN) | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Makeamericagreat | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Fault Line | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Rio Bueno | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Alexandros | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | El Mas Puro | 5.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | National Pride | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Everado | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Meanwhile | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Macfadden | 20.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Escalera | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Interlaken | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Obtained | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Erin’s Wish | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Betruetoyourschool | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gales of November | 5.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Northern Connect | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rilla | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lusty Git Yer Gun | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Abby in Pink | 4.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Tiger Lisa | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cash Dance | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | American Alphabet | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Adorable Eyes | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Vinca | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Wild Moment | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Dos Vinos | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Istan Council | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wheedle | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vomba | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Paper Clip | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Street Rally | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Ultimate Mo | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sadi’s Hope | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Aurora Way | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Twisted Tom | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Utmost | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Zapperini | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Krampus | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Team Colors | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Nileator | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Harlan Strong (ARG) | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Judah | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Net Gain | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Miss Systematic | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Eye’s Reward | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Workaholic | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Vegan Goes Best | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Champagnerie | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Delcapem | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Crafty’s Dream | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stolen Beauty | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jo Marie | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Beautiful Ballad | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Speedacious | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Thirstforlife | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Dalmore | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Parlor | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Master Merion | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Camelot Kitten | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mr Cub | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sonic Boom | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cowboy Culture | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Slim Shadey (GB) | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Big Changes | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Galton | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Majestic Pride | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Some in Tieme (BRZ) | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Meantime | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | End of Spirits | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Own Agenda | 4.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pony Up | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lenstar | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hollywood Star | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Uber Kirk | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Welles Crowther | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Buffalo Trace Franklin County S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | Brittney On Blades | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Goldberry | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Ruby Notion | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Belvoir Bay (GB) | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Girls Know Best | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Morticia | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Delectation (GB) | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Con Te Partiro | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Chanteline | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Gossip (IRE) | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Smiling Causeway | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Brielle’s Appeal | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Country Chick | 50.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Excessivespending | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Aiken to Be | 50.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 15 | 13 | On Probation | 50.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Turner Time | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Come On Dover | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dragon Moon | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Istillgotit | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Speared | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Undercover Lover | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Because It’s Time | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | B Dubya | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Junket | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Dance Strike | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | All Hansens Ondeck | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.