October 12, 2018 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Wildwood Dancer 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Elwood’s Advice 4.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Town Classic 2.50 2.9 6-1
4 4 Pitch Count 4.00 4 8-1
1 1 Dupree 8.00 4.5 9-1
7 6 Ironclad 4.50 4.7 9-1
3 3 Shooters Alley 20.00 5.3 10-1
8 7 Forze Mau (VEN) 5.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Makeamericagreat 4.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Fault Line 6.00 3.5 7-1
10 9 Rio Bueno 3.00 4.5 9-1
6 5 Alexandros 8.00 4.8 9-1
12 11 El Mas Puro 5.00 5 10-1
8 7 National Pride 8.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Everado 20.00 6.2 12-1
7 6 Meanwhile 15.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Mr. Macfadden 20.00 6.6 13-1
4 4 Escalera 30.00 6.9 13-1
11 10 Interlaken 10.00 6.9 13-1
9 8 Obtained 15.00 7.6 14-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Erin’s Wish 3.50 2.7 5-1
3 3 Betruetoyourschool 8.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Gales of November 5.00 5 10-1
10 10 Northern Connect 4.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Rilla 15.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Lusty Git Yer Gun 10.00 5.3 10-1
11 11 Abby in Pink 4.50 5.9 11-1
8 8 Tiger Lisa 10.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Cash Dance 15.00 7.4 14-1
9 9 American Alphabet 12.00 7.9 15-1
7 7 Adorable Eyes 30.00 8.4 16-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Vinca 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Wild Moment 15.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Dos Vinos 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Istan Council 3.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Wheedle 2.50 2.3 4-1
3 3 Vomba 8.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Paper Clip 3.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Street Rally 15.00 5.2 10-1
9 7 Ultimate Mo 15.00 5.9 11-1
7 6 Sadi’s Hope 30.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Aurora Way 4.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Twisted Tom 15.00 SCRATCH
3 2 Utmost 2.00 2.3 4-1
2 1 Zapperini 8.00 2.6 5-1
5 4 Krampus 2.50 3.8 7-1
6 5 Team Colors 10.00 4.6 9-1
8 6 Nileator 15.00 5.4 10-1
9 7 Harlan Strong (ARG) 10.00 5.5 10-1
4 3 Judah 30.00 5.9 11-1
10 8 Net Gain 20.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Miss Systematic 10.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Eye’s Reward 6.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Workaholic 2.50 3.8 7-1
1 1 Vegan Goes Best 10.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Champagnerie 8.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Delcapem 6.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Crafty’s Dream 8.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Stolen Beauty 15.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Jo Marie 15.00 6.6 12-1
10 10 Beautiful Ballad 8.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Speedacious 10.00 7.1 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Thirstforlife 3.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Dalmore 3.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Parlor 3.00 2 4-1
6 6 Master Merion 3.50 4.4 8-1
3 3 Camelot Kitten 10.00 5 9-1
7 7 Mr Cub 6.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Sonic Boom 12.00 6 11-1
5 5 Cowboy Culture 12.00 6.3 12-1
9 9 Slim Shadey (GB) 8.00 6.4 12-1
11 11 Big Changes 8.00 6.6 12-1
10 10 Galton 10.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Majestic Pride 15.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Some in Tieme (BRZ) 12.00 8.4 16-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Meantime 4.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 End of Spirits 3.50 3.3 6-1
2 2 Own Agenda 4.00 3.4 7-1
3 3 Pony Up 5.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Lenstar 8.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Hollywood Star 5.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Uber Kirk 4.50 5.4 10-1
7 7 Welles Crowther 20.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Buffalo Trace Franklin County S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 Brittney On Blades 50.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Goldberry 50.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Ruby Notion 5.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Belvoir Bay (GB) 3.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Girls Know Best 6.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Morticia 6.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Delectation (GB) 12.00 5 9-1
2 2 Con Te Partiro 15.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Chanteline 5.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Miss Gossip (IRE) 30.00 5.8 11-1
11 11 Smiling Causeway 6.00 6.5 12-1
13 12 Brielle’s Appeal 12.00 8 15-1
5 5 Country Chick 50.00 8.2 16-1
8 8 Excessivespending 30.00 8.6 16-1
10 10 Aiken to Be 50.00 9.4 18-1
15 13 On Probation 50.00 10.1 19-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Turner Time 4.50 SCRATCH
3 3 Come On Dover 4.00 3.2 6-1
5 4 Dragon Moon 6.00 3.9 7-1
10 9 Istillgotit 3.50 4.3 8-1
2 2 Speared 15.00 4.7 9-1
6 5 Undercover Lover 15.00 5.3 10-1
11 10 Because It’s Time 4.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 B Dubya 20.00 6.2 12-1
7 6 Junket 15.00 6.3 12-1
9 8 Dance Strike 15.00 7.2 14-1
8 7 All Hansens Ondeck 15.00 7.2 14-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.