October 11, 2018 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Rehearsal Dinner | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mahdia | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Head Dress | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Don’t Tell Lydia | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cassidy Ave | 12.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mizzen Colony | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Molly’s Game | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fun Sucker | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Heavenly Lucky | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Precious Luck | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Honey Rose | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Peytons Proud Girl | 15.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Fahrenheit | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Queen Jeanne | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Abstain | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Maho Bay | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Criminal Mischief | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Faith Healer | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Proportionality | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Eternal Vow | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Courtmewithcarats | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | More On Tap | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Dapper Sam | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bobby the Brain | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hansenation | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bagpipes | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Salsa’s Return | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Shobiz Star | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Two Stepping Groom | 30.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Written Word (GB) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Lessons From Avery | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Ballston | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Cape Kimbo | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Peter’s Kitten | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cured by Kitten | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gentle Ruler | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Morelikelythannot | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blame the Gods | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Coexistence | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | That’s That | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dynamic Miss | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Cloche | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Revenge Is Sweet | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Faith in Cathy | 50.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Twin Channel | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Logical Myth | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Bill’s Mafia | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pantherus Leo | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Don Ciccio | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Irish Oak | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Babeswildweekend | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Majestic Hero | 3.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rockyshack | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | One for Richie | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Seventy Seventycat | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Doctor Dora | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Don’t Stop Maria | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Love Shack Baby | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Braydens Start | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fashion Envy | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mandarina | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mynameismoney | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Jukebox Money | 4.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Nana’s Joy | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 12 | Cash Out | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Dessert Honeys | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 5 | Innocent | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Angel of Mischief | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bridaled Temper | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Haniel | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Deadline | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Lady Beware (IRE) | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Summer Blossom | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Perfect Pitch | 5.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Runninwiththewind | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ellens Birthday | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Beyond the Victory | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | My Sixth Sense | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pole Setter | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lexitonian | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Manny Wah | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Meade | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Stage Left | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dynamic Racer | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fly Away Birdie | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Jais’s Solitude | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | High Powered | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Welles Crowther | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Create Again | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Polar Light | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Demolition | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Stock Trade | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Tempestad | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Art Collection | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Morocco | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Fred’stwirlincandy | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Thunder Mesa | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Marzo | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Heaven Is Waiting | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Harlan Selection (ARG) | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Run Tappy | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 15 | 11 | Sekondi | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | King of Candy | 30.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Round Hill | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Gran Red | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Joey B | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Union Bowman | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Purimeter | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Long On Luck | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Tonbo | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Due to His Charm | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bold Shot | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Galatasaray | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Back Togetheragain | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Mansoor | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Red Again | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | My Foolish Beau | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.