October 11, 2018 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
15 15 Rehearsal Dinner 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Mahdia 12.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Head Dress 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Don’t Tell Lydia 3.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Cassidy Ave 12.00 4 7-1
9 9 Mizzen Colony 3.50 4.9 9-1
8 8 Molly’s Game 5.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Fun Sucker 10.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Heavenly Lucky 12.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Precious Luck 15.00 6.3 12-1
11 11 Honey Rose 5.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Peytons Proud Girl 15.00 7.1 14-1
2 2 Miss Fahrenheit 20.00 7.4 14-1
12 12 Queen Jeanne 15.00 8.6 16-1
10 10 Abstain 20.00 9.2 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Maho Bay 2.50 2.4 4-1
1 1 Criminal Mischief 3.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Faith Healer 3.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Proportionality 4.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Eternal Vow 6.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Courtmewithcarats 5.00 5.2 10-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 More On Tap 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Dapper Sam 3.50 3.2 6-1
8 7 Bobby the Brain 3.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Hansenation 6.00 3.8 7-1
6 5 Bagpipes 4.00 4 7-1
7 6 Salsa’s Return 4.50 4.8 9-1
5 4 Shobiz Star 5.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Two Stepping Groom 30.00 5.1 10-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
15 15 Written Word (GB) 8.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Lessons From Avery 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Ballston 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Cape Kimbo 30.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Peter’s Kitten 4.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Cured by Kitten 4.50 3.8 7-1
4 4 Gentle Ruler 6.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Morelikelythannot 3.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Blame the Gods 12.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Coexistence 3.50 5.3 10-1
6 6 That’s That 12.00 6.1 12-1
5 5 Dynamic Miss 20.00 6.8 13-1
11 11 Cloche 20.00 7.9 15-1
8 8 Revenge Is Sweet 30.00 9 17-1
7 7 Faith in Cathy 50.00 9.2 17-1
12 12 Twin Channel 20.00 9.5 18-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Logical Myth 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Bill’s Mafia 2.50 3.1 6-1
3 3 Pantherus Leo 3.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Don Ciccio 15.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Irish Oak 10.00 4 8-1
9 8 Babeswildweekend 6.00 5.4 10-1
10 9 Majestic Hero 3.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Rockyshack 20.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 One for Richie 15.00 6.5 12-1
8 7 Seventy Seventycat 20.00 6.9 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Doctor Dora 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Don’t Stop Maria 3.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Love Shack Baby 3.50 2.8 5-1
2 2 Braydens Start 4.00 4 7-1
7 6 Fashion Envy 3.50 4.4 8-1
1 1 Mandarina 20.00 5 9-1
8 7 Mynameismoney 15.00 5.8 11-1
9 8 Jukebox Money 4.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Nana’s Joy 30.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1A 12 Cash Out 4.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Dessert Honeys 8.00 SCRATCH
1 5 Innocent 4.00 3.1 6-1
4 3 Angel of Mischief 4.50 4 8-1
7 7 Bridaled Temper 2.50 4 8-1
2 1 Haniel 20.00 4.5 9-1
8 8 Deadline 4.00 4.9 9-1
3 2 Lady Beware (IRE) 30.00 5.9 11-1
5 4 Summer Blossom 20.00 6.2 12-1
10 10 Perfect Pitch 5.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Runninwiththewind 8.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Ellens Birthday 30.00 7.9 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Beyond the Victory 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 My Sixth Sense 5.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Pole Setter 3.50 2.8 5-1
5 5 Lexitonian 4.50 4.2 8-1
3 3 Manny Wah 6.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Meade 6.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Stage Left 8.00 6.1 12-1
6 6 Dynamic Racer 30.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Fly Away Birdie 12.00 7.3 14-1
11 10 Jais’s Solitude 8.00 7.6 14-1
10 9 High Powered 15.00 7.8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Welles Crowther 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Create Again 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Polar Light 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Demolition 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Stock Trade 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Tempestad 5.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Art Collection 5.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Morocco 6.00 4 8-1
9 8 Fred’stwirlincandy 4.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Thunder Mesa 10.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Marzo 15.00 6.2 12-1
10 9 Heaven Is Waiting 8.00 6.5 12-1
7 6 Harlan Selection (ARG) 20.00 6.9 13-1
11 10 Run Tappy 10.00 7 13-1
15 11 Sekondi 15.00 8.2 16-1
8 7 King of Candy 30.00 8.2 16-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Round Hill 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Gran Red 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Joey B 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Union Bowman 3.50 2.3 4-1
5 5 Purimeter 5.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Long On Luck 5.00 4.4 8-1
10 9 Tonbo 5.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Due to His Charm 12.00 5.5 10-1
8 7 Bold Shot 6.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Galatasaray 15.00 6.8 13-1
9 8 Back Togetheragain 8.00 6.9 13-1
13 10 Mansoor 8.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 Red Again 20.00 7.4 14-1
14 11 My Foolish Beau 12.00 7.9 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.