October 10, 2018 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | High Regard | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Time Warp | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mucho Amor | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Enjay’s Brass | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Champagne Anyone | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Oxy Lady | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Woven | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Gritter Man | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Grand Candy | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Only Liquor | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Riff Raff | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Prime Issue | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Small Town Hero | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Nominal Dollars | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Citali | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Swamp Ruler | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Ceejay’s Mister | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | My Dream | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Gottsacker | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Hurry Back | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Trouble Coffee | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Midnight Tea Time | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Prompt | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Love Sick Kitten | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fra Mauro | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Non Regrette | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Silver Shield | 3.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Bail Out | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | High Beam | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dime Dropper | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Courage and Honor | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | American Sea | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Apreciado | 30.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Alizee | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Eye’s Reward | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Holywood Humor | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Alin Azul | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | South of France | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Stealing Sunshine | 5.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mucha Mezquina | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Amandrea | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Resurrection Road | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Floss Dancer | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Nana’s Girl | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Rosa Star | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Elsie’s Honor | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Bally Squall | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Stellar Stiletto | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Haniel | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Runninwiththewind | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Innocent | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Napier | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Ellens Birthday | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Dancing All Night | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lenamarie | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Civil Union | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Flat Meadow | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Oh My | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Princesschope (FR) | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cloak of Secrecy | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Market Top | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Lemon Princess | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rollover Risk | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Undivided | 50.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Bal Harbour | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 11 | Shangroyal | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Dak Attack | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 11 | Battle At Sea | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Noble Commander | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Honorable Treasure | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Best of Greeley | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Nottoway | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Barry Lee | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Fascilitator | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Smart Remark | 8.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Ebben | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Cowboy Creed | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Jpmorgan Chase Jessamine S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | My Gal Betty | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | No Mo Temper | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Moravia (GB) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Speedy Solution | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Concrete Rose | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Zalia | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pakhet | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Fierce Scarlett | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Princesa Carolina | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lightscameraaction | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lucky Girasol | 50.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Espresso Shot | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Monkeys Uncle | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | City Diva | 50.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 16 | 13 | Belle Laura | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Irish Willow | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Park Ridge Benny | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Hallie’s Hero | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Just Old School | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | House of Commons | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Zip Van Winkle | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Teletap | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Strolling | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tizabreeze | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mighty Ghost | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Spotitude | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Operator | 50.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Here’s Carlos | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Go for Moonshine | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.