Sports from the Basement

Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, October 10, 2018

October 10, 2018 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 High Regard 2.50 2.4 4-1
1 1 Time Warp 3.50 2.6 5-1
5 5 Mucho Amor 4.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Enjay’s Brass 5.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Champagne Anyone 4.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Oxy Lady 12.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Woven 5.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Gritter Man 30.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Grand Candy 4.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Only Liquor 4.50 3.2 6-1
3 3 Riff Raff 3.00 3.3 6-1
7 6 Prime Issue 2.50 3.3 6-1
1 1 Small Town Hero 20.00 4.3 8-1
5 4 Nominal Dollars 6.00 4.3 8-1
6 5 Citali 12.00 4.8 9-1
9 7 Swamp Ruler 12.00 6.2 12-1
10 8 Ceejay’s Mister 30.00 7.4 14-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
16 16 My Dream 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Gottsacker 30.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Hurry Back 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Trouble Coffee 10.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Midnight Tea Time 2.50 3.9 7-1
2 2 Prompt 5.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Love Sick Kitten 6.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Fra Mauro 10.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Non Regrette 8.00 5.9 11-1
13 12 Silver Shield 3.00 6 11-1
9 8 Bail Out 5.00 6 11-1
1 1 High Beam 20.00 7 13-1
7 6 Dime Dropper 15.00 7.1 13-1
12 11 Courage and Honor 8.00 7.6 14-1
11 10 American Sea 12.00 7.9 15-1
10 9 Apreciado 30.00 9.3 18-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Alizee 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Eye’s Reward 5.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Holywood Humor 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Alin Azul 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 South of France 2.50 3.1 6-1
7 5 Stealing Sunshine 5.00 3.4 7-1
3 3 Mucha Mezquina 12.00 4.8 9-1
8 6 Amandrea 10.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Resurrection Road 20.00 5.7 11-1
11 9 Floss Dancer 6.00 5.8 11-1
13 11 Nana’s Girl 5.00 6.5 12-1
10 8 Rosa Star 12.00 6.9 13-1
6 4 Elsie’s Honor 20.00 7.1 13-1
12 10 Bally Squall 10.00 7.3 14-1
9 7 Stellar Stiletto 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
15 15 Haniel 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Runninwiththewind 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Innocent 6.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Napier 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Ellens Birthday 50.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Dancing All Night 4.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Lenamarie 5.00 4 8-1
7 7 Civil Union 3.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Flat Meadow 8.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Oh My 20.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Princesschope (FR) 8.00 5.3 10-1
9 9 Cloak of Secrecy 4.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Market Top 30.00 5.6 11-1
11 10 Lemon Princess 20.00 8.2 15-1
8 8 Rollover Risk 30.00 8.6 16-1
12 11 Undivided 50.00 9.6 18-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Bal Harbour 5.00 SCRATCH
1 11 Shangroyal 8.00 SCRATCH
2 1 Dak Attack 6.00 3.1 6-1
1A 11 Battle At Sea 8.00 3.5 7-1
6 4 Noble Commander 6.00 3.9 7-1
9 7 Honorable Treasure 2.50 4.1 8-1
3 2 Best of Greeley 20.00 6 11-1
4 3 Nottoway 20.00 6.1 12-1
7 5 Barry Lee 10.00 6.2 12-1
10 8 Fascilitator 8.00 6.8 13-1
12 10 Smart Remark 8.00 7.7 14-1
11 9 Ebben 20.00 8 15-1
8 6 Cowboy Creed 30.00 8.5 16-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Jpmorgan Chase Jessamine S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 My Gal Betty 4.00 SCRATCH
15 15 No Mo Temper 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Moravia (GB) 4.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Speedy Solution 10.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Concrete Rose 6.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Zalia 15.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Pakhet 8.00 5 9-1
10 9 Fierce Scarlett 3.50 5.3 10-1
7 7 Princesa Carolina 12.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Lightscameraaction 20.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Lucky Girasol 50.00 7.6 14-1
12 11 Espresso Shot 15.00 8.2 15-1
14 12 Monkeys Uncle 15.00 8.7 16-1
8 8 City Diva 50.00 8.9 17-1
16 13 Belle Laura 15.00 9 17-1
11 10 Irish Willow 20.00 9.2 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Park Ridge Benny 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Hallie’s Hero 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Just Old School 30.00 SCRATCH
2 2 House of Commons 3.50 2.1 4-1
3 3 Zip Van Winkle 4.50 3.4 6-1
7 7 Teletap 4.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Strolling 8.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Tizabreeze 15.00 5.4 10-1
9 8 Mighty Ghost 6.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Spotitude 12.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Operator 50.00 7.3 14-1
10 9 Here’s Carlos 12.00 7.4 14-1
11 10 Go for Moonshine 15.00 7.7 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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