October 6, 2018 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Shanghai Aguilera | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Ipanema Beach | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tipazar | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hey Good Lookin | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Try This | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ruby Roan | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fake News and Data | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Truth Goddess | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Mannerly | 1.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Mertie | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dorodansa | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pinch Hit | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Beach Flower | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cascanueces | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mo’s M V P | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ruler of the Nile | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Land Battle | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Taruca | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Jacktastic | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wegotoldyougotsold | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Day Dreamer | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Maimo | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pass the Gravy | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Bourbon Country | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Seven Nation Army | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Soul of Discretion | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | El Cucuy | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Out of Hydeing | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Wolf Strike | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Vital | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Big Iron | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Spirit Hawk | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Proud Emma | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Toy Moon | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Positive Spirit | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Perfect Reins | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tiz Ella | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Web o’ Gold | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Armony’s Angel | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Spackle | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Artistic | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Factor Around | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Woodford S. Presented By Keeneland Select
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Holding Gold | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Bucchero | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Extravagant Kid | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Will Call | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Done Deal | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Rocket Heat | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kid Perfect | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Undrafted | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Vici | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Angaston | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Win Lion Win | 50.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Machismo | 50.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Thoroughbred Club Of America S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Miss Sunset | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Vertical Oak | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Golden Mischief | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Curlin’s Approval | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Happy Like a Fool | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rich Mommy | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Torrent | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Chalon | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Awestruck | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Crazy Sweet | 30.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – First Lady S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | La Sardane (FR) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Quidura (GB) | 2.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | A Raving Beauty (GER) | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Crown Walk (GB) | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Dona Bruja (ARG) | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Indian Blessing (GB) | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Insta Erma | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Off Limits (IRE) | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Valadorna | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | One Liz | 50.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Mind Control | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Sombeyay | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dream Maker | 5.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fluminense | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Unionizer | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Signalman | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Everfast | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Moonster | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tobacco Road | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mr. Ankeny | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 14 | 13 | Standard Deviation | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Knicks Go | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Borracho | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Derby Date | 20.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Shadwell Turf Mile S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Divisidero | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Zulu Alpha | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Holiday Stone | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Heart to Heart | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Qurbaan | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Synchrony | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Analyze It | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Next Shares | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Almanaar (GB) | 4.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Voodoo Song | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Imperative | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Mr. Misunderstood | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Great Wide Open (IRE) | 50.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Multiplier | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 14 | 13 | Bound for Nowhere | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Big Score | 30.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14A | 14 | Spire | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Somes Sound | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Swordsman | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Limonite | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Ready and Rich | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kitchi | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Bold Proposition | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | King Ford | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 10A | 9 | Gotta Bounce | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Queen’s Bird | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Cigar City | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Roan Like the Wind | 20.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Raf | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mr Zydeco | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.