October 5, 2018 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Firewater Jake | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | No Picture Charlie | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Noble Nebraskan | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | A. K. Safari | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Pico Entry | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Unity | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Drilliant | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Life Mission | 2.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Quicksilver | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Just Kitten You | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Impress Me | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mr. Sarcastic | 12.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Field Patrol | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Temple | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Veiled Vixen | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Hoptown Honey | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Riesling | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ella Brown | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pure Sugar | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Castle Ridge | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dev Mo | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Run Laughing | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Connie Ann | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Flat Awesome Jenny | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Dessert Honeys | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Aerial Assets | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Virginia Key | 1.60 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Clever Serve | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mo Justice | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Saracosa | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Miz K | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kenlake | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Emma Kate | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Flash n’ Dance | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | True Boots | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mischievious Lass | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | She’s a Lucky One | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Braydens Start | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dylan Did It | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Despina | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Juju’s Specialgirl | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Showed Up Late | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Tumultuous Gal | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Painted Canyon | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Plus Que Parfait | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Twice Please | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Southern Bridge | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Agitator | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Moon Colony | 2.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | He’s No Lemon | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Candizar | 6.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Counter Offer | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Betwithbothhands | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Oro de Tejano | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Freemore | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lucky Fast | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Proud as Punch | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Red Rover | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Ceeky | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Hickory Hill | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dan the Go to Man | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Yes I See | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mineyerownmalone | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | He’s No Saint | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tres Equis | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Irish Proud | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fulkerson | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9A | 9 | Manipulated | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 13A | 12 | Outback Jack | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Thundercloud | 50.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Louisiana Brown | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Machismo | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Honorable Treasure | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Sun Lover (GB) | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Argentic (FR) | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Misspent Youth | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Convict Pike | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Majestic Eagle | 3.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Birdsnest Party | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Almoreb | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Epic (ARG) | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Zorzor | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lone Rock | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Parauari (FR) | 6.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | The Gomper | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Distinctive B | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Promises Fulfilled | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Whitmore | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Limousine Liberal | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Heartwood | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Dalmore | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Darley Alcibiades S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | Khairiya | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Champagne Anyone | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Restless Rider | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lady T N T | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Reflect | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Meadow Dance | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Catherinethegreat | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Boujie Girl | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kim K | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Into Trouble | 15.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Malocchio | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Somewhere | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | My Wynter Rose | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Chocolate Kisses | 20.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Bella Ciao | 15.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Abbo | 30.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Reconsider | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Toast the Bulldogs | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Freedom Passage | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Solar Kitten | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Hope So | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Full Swing | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Vortices | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | To the Moon N Back | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Vasilisa | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Le Moine | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Macabre | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Coincidence | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Zamzam | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Scat Maggie | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Sophie Antoinette | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Fun Paddy | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.