September 29, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Slimey | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Winning Envelope | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | My Jilly | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Zabava | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lancelots Lady | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Music City Miss | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Noble Destiny | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Charge to Victory | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shoeless | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Trask | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Deano | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Russian to Tapit | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tax | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | She Love Me | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Luck of the Draw | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Leroy Be Thy Name | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Sworn Silence | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Diamondcoat | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Triple Kapalua | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sohni | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Unfading Beauty | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | North Princess | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | My Dark Secret | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bella Moon | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Honor With Pride | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sophie’s Angel | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Diamond Crazy | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Workaholic | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ginny B | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | New Rules | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Semper Frey | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Strong Patriot | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | My Girl Rocket | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Spac | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Kajawa | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | The Emerald Queen | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Canton Comet | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Calaveras | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Caliber | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Quiet Company | 1.60 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | All Fact | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ronan | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hetty G. | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Seaside Dancer | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Takechargmatriarch | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Carrizo | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Shesomajestic | 10.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sacred Lady | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Kranji (BRZ) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7A | 7 | Secret House | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Bold Prophet | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | J Boys Echo | 1.60 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Finglas | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Casses Story | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Casino Star | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bondurant | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Zulu | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Jefferson Cup S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Majestic Eagle | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Hot Springs | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tigers Rule | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Captivating Moon | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Discovered | 20.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Armed for Battle | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Factor This | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Dubby Dubbie | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Silent Citizen | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | King Valero | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Ack Ack S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Flatlined | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Giant Expectations | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Awesome Slew | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Seeking the Soul | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | C Z Rocket | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Warrior’s Club | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Nice Not Nice | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Lukas Classic S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Honorable Duty | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mind Your Biscuits | 1.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Remembering Rita | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rated R Superstar | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Breaking Lucky | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Term of Art | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Toast of New York | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Flowers for Lisa | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – President Of The United Arab Emirates Cup S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | QUICK SAND AA | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | QUICK AND RICH | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | UPTOWN SANDY GIRL | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | EASTER MAN | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | MADJIKMAN | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | MYSTICAL MHF | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | BURN NOTICE MC | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | THESS IS AWESOME | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | RB HOCUS POCUS | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Truth Goddess | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Ella Brown | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Mrs Howell | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Summer Storm | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Talaalah | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | She’s So Bossy | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Say It Softly | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Data Star | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Bronze Charm | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.