September 22, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Macho Alpha | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Oscarific | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Willow Ridge | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Admiral Sean | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Demand Ransom | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Katano | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Assaulter | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Crafty Prospect | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Track Magic | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Petal Path | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Put Position | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mongolian Time | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Street Smarty | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | U Turn the Page | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kingsbury Dream | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Illini Kitten | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Royal Commish | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Iter | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Welovecandy | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Good Bye Greg | 1.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Jockamo’s Song | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Shogood | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Simsbury | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | What’s Up Dude | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Midnight Blue Note | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Mutakddim Road | 50.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Valiant Lady | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Her Wild Lifestyle | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Running Vicky | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rain Expression | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Cuddle Me | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Numbers Game | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | McKinli’sbabyblues | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Country Assets | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Speared | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Magic Dragon | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Workingforaliving | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Contraction | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Ghost Position | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Tapizone | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Donivan My Boy | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Keen On Gene | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Party On Dude | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Justenufftuff | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Trumpified | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Arch Away | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Sullyvin’s G G | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Star of the Market | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Konza Khrome | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hey Hey | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Barb n’ Don | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Twin Deuce | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Hide the Honey | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ghost Train | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Good Wishes | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wind Cheater | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mystique Artiste | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Hawk’s Image | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Dancing Rock | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mister Maestro | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Golden Gift | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Five Green Stars | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Little Baltar | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Purely Boy | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Croce d’Oro | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Gorgeous George | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Giacallure | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Romeo Lima | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Red Corvette | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fort Ridge | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Suspenders | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Bulldog of Bergen | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Spring Solo | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Hot Dad | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Broken Key | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Golden Dart | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Senor Blanco | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Aktabantay (GB) | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Duchossois | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Archiemyboy | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Alittlevodka | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | River Cactus | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Rio Seco | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Yourdecisionotmine | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | High On Sugar | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Strike Quiet | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Wile E Peyote | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Matthew’s Thunder | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gray Mensch | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Boom Box | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Danny B | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Run Your Race | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Desani’s Chance | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Z U Soon | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Changn Fivehundred | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Im the Best I Know | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
| 8 | 8 | One Way Home | 30.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Seventyseven Beuty | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Queen Jeanne | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Frosty Friend | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Appealing Allure | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Aviating | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Staria Peach | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Last Surprize | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tomasita | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | First Hoosier | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cocoa Parfait | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Silver Skyler | 30.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | English Pass | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Elusive Aura | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Penny Slots | 30.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.