September 21, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Boohoo Sue | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | No Partners | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Budget Cut | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | She Loves Leather | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | My Mystery | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Erin’s Wish | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Precisely Ponti | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Northern Connect | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Roiland | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Thousand Percent | 1.60 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dazzling Truths | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lady’s Weekend | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Spectacular Gem | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Say It Ain’t So | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Mineyerownmalone | 1.20 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Boxer Boy | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shobiz Star | 2.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Aviator Parks | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hussar | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blame Angel | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Atta Kid | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | A. P. Princess | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wicked Ekati | 1.80 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Indicating | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Skip and a Hop | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Zodiac Princess | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Dixieland Punkin | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rhoda’s Jewell | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Franki D Oro | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Classy Justice | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Monday Confession | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Catanova | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Forze Mau (VEN) | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Conquest Hiosilver | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Wildwood Dancer | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Data Driven | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Diamondmaze | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Junket | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Tough | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Mr. Sarcastic | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Quicksilver | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Sarcillo | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | All American Hero | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lake Nakuru | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | My America | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Peter the Great | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tactical Quality | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | And Seek | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | D Two | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Booby Trap | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Painted Canyon | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Quite a Bit | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Crimson Creed | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kaylen’s Revenge | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Amberspatriot | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Don’t Stop Maria | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Promissory Note | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Spoofy Doo | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | War Eagle’s Love | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dyna Belle | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Urawesomeblossom | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Adleress | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Wild Will | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Macfadden | 5.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dixieland Rags | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sacred Walk | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Burciaga | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Maximum Rate | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pistol Box | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Colombiano | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Stack Em High | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hitthegroundrunnin | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Musial | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Bet It All to Win | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Unbridled Outlaw | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lasting Legacy | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Control Stake | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Balandeen | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Town Classic | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Icatiro | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Spikes Shirl | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Mr. Money | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Handsome Honey | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Kitten’s Spa | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Twice Please | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Gottageauxgeauxgo | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Cantrell Hill | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tez | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Just War | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bluegrass Parkway | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Claytnthelionheart | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fast Data | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Audubon Wood | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ready to Forgive | 12.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Coleaquilus | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | El Ahijado | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.