September 21, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Love Shack Baby | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sea Shack | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kantastic | 1.60 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Checotah | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rachelgotstephen | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Jinx Johnson | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Superstar Diva | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Superdyne | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Summer Seashell | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Have the Facts | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hero Alexandra | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Royal’s Fox | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Featherstone | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Marq Her a Hemi | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tippy | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Brave Benny | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Dom the Bomb | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Roarin Missile | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Do Not Enter | 1.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Prize Native | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Savie | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Oltre’ Oro | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | City Sage | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Or Sunday | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Golden Story | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Zimmerman | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Kid Mac Cool | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Poddubny | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | King of the Score | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Landing Gear | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | U S S Altair | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fort Commander | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Garey Park | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Hide the Evidence | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Jeggyjeggy | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Maximum Factor | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fulla Blarney | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | King’s Castle | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bold Attack | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dollar Blue | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bourbon Tan | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Kissedthegirls | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Gargoyle | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Antrim’s Giant | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Hellofaguy | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Ferlin Husky | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Orcus | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Round Hill | 12.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sacred Legacy | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Papa Caliente | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Prince Arlo | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fist Full | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Camalus | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Skycraft | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Thunder Down Under | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ekaterinoslav | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Suzdal | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rough Justice | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Handsome Harve | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kaylea’s Hero | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bravo Dixie | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Winning Homer | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Straight Shooter | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Hey Pretty Boy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Prince Cheval | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Prima Storm | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Steelman Run | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Half of Manhattan | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Solar Flair | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Unbridled Giant | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | All Call | 1.60 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fort Dixie | 6.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | He’s Dann Good | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cookies Are Good | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Montana Kid | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Greyt Oak | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Flashdance Road | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Chief Oakie Dokie | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Domikate | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Blue Sky Kowboy | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Memory Bank | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Happy Wanderer | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Don’task Don’ttell | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Patriot Drive | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Nun the Less | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Bold Rally | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Moon Over Montana | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Student Body Left | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Action Everyday | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Kalispell | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Evasive Storm | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Salty Scatt | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Kool Kate | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Mo Justice | 3.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Chlobee | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lemon Drop Twist | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Goddess of Kip | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Silvera | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Rose to Glory | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.