September 20, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Mucho Mas Grande | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Flat Out Fast | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Norco | 3.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Long On Luck | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Leo Meister | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sunrise Hawk | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Lady T N T | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fightress | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Beach Getaway | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Shanghai Rain | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Molto Bella | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Madison’s Quarters | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Take Aletter Maria | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Bee Bit | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Grandaria | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Toast the Bulldogs | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Sophie Antoinette | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | No Mo Temper | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Liora | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Gamblin Train | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Sense of War | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Julia’s Ready | 6.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Irish Intuition | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Singita Dreams | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Fun Paddy | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Really Not Again | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Rojo Rocks | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | Go for Sherrie | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Battalstown | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Chase Runner | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Strider | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Ricochet Bay | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Intonation | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jay Vee Bee | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Power Source | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Six Shooter | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bar Stool Budget | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Tequila Cowboy | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | No Mistake N Me | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Midland | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Take Charge d’Oro | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Whataboutlamar | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Famous Pen Pal | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Hawk | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Coach’s Dream | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Doctor Lee | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Ramblingrudyrags | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Fightingjoewheeler | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Peekacho | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Moneymeister | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Northern Trail | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Vandelay | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Accumulator | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Here’s Carlos | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Cumber | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Can Go | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Omega | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Trenton Bridge | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Arch You Ready | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Cosmic Code | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Spackle | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Coincidence | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Zamzam | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | British Invader (GB) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Italian Summer | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Farmavet | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Annagram | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Belle Laura | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Empress Sophia | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Scatrattleandroll | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sadi’s Hope | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bally Squall | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sooner Schooner | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Accolady | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Run Wrightaway | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Alex’s Bourbon | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Honor Ride | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | True Boots | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bella Belle | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Moolamiss | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Moolah Schmoolah | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Fashion Runaway | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Curlin’s Prize | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Molly’s Game | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Heavenly Lucky | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Parisian Stroll | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cassidy Ave | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Durlyn | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Curlabella | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Momma Joann | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | B Deb’s Fortune | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Positive Vibes | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Dawnibug | 30.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.