September 15, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Ready and Rich 3.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Bold Proposition 5.00 3.1 6-1
4A 4 Trip Candy 5.00 4.1 8-1
8A 8 Equus Novus 5.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Distorted Jimmy 10.00 5.2 10-1
9 9 City Siege 6.00 6.5 12-1
12 12 Math Wizard 5.00 7.1 13-1
7 7 Royal Medallion 10.00 7.5 14-1
5 5 The Columbus Kid 15.00 7.9 15-1
10 10 R One 6.00 8 15-1
6 6 Queen’s Bird 15.00 8.7 16-1
11 11 Replete 12.00 9.4 18-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3A 3 Beach Bum 3.00 2.5 5-1
4A 4 Day Dreamer 3.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 True to Dixie 5.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Park Ridge Benny 6.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 One More Tom 5.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Toothpic 4.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Match Play 5.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Big Iron 8.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Fourth Quarter 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Tell Your Mama 3.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Regal Serenade 4.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Fiduciary Values 5.00 3.2 6-1
8 8 Innocent 2.50 4.3 8-1
4 4 Believe Land 6.00 5 10-1
9 9 Cured by Kitten 4.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Cloche 6.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Dynamic Miss 15.00 6 11-1
3A 3 Alexa’s Gold 20.00 6.5 12-1
10 10 My Little Stormy 15.00 7.6 14-1
6A 6 Rushingirl 20.00 7.9 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Johny’s Bobby 3.00 2.8 5-1
5A 5 Kaziranga 5.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Borracho 3.50 4.5 8-1
4 4 Exchequer 6.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Thetrashmanscoming 15.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Sharp Prospect 10.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Better Charge It 15.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Oro de Tejano 6.00 6.4 12-1
10A 10 Spire 5.00 6.6 12-1
8 8 Thundershook 6.00 6.9 13-1
11 11 J Zar 20.00 9.3 18-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Omen of Change 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Istillgotit 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Land Battle 6.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Taruca 12.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Baffin 2.50 4.3 8-1
9 8 Turner Time 4.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Eternal Force 8.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Beautiful Game 6.00 5 10-1
6 6 Gettin Even 8.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Charge the Line 15.00 6 11-1
10 9 Potential Danger 12.00 7.1 14-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Plus Que Parfait 3.50 3 6-1
7 7 Chasing Happy 3.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Curlin Grey 8.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Dictator 8.00 4 8-1
10 10 Moonster 6.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Grandgran 8.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Night Ops 12.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Charles T 8.00 7.2 14-1
6 6 Post Close 15.00 7.3 14-1
9 9 Twelfth Labour 8.00 7.5 14-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Tom 5.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Scooter’s Boy 12.00 SCRATCH
7 5 Preamble 5.00 4.1 8-1
10 8 Blue Steel 4.50 4.3 8-1
4 3 Soap Bubble 6.00 4.6 9-1
5 4 Clench 8.00 4.7 9-1
12 10 Locally Owned 4.00 4.9 9-1
1A 1 Pantherus Leo 15.00 5.4 10-1
8 6 Edgemont Road 12.00 5.5 10-1
3 2 Bourbon Calling 15.00 6.2 12-1
11 9 Kitchi 12.00 6.5 12-1
9A 7 Half Shot 15.00 7.8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Open Mind S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Vertical Oak 1.40 2.9 6-1
6 6 Miss Kentucky 2.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Thirteen Songs 30.00 4 7-1
7 7 Astrollinthepark 2.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 P Boo 20.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Our Majesty 8.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Courtmewithcarats 50.00 5.5 10-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Locust Grove S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Blue Prize (ARG) 2.00 2.7 5-1
2 2 Champagne Problems 4.00 3 6-1
5 5 Pinch Hit 4.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Mannerly 5.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Tiger Moth 10.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Streamline 15.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Sailor’s Valentine 10.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Dutch Parrot 20.00 6.6 12-1
9 9 Pacific Pink 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Iroquois S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Tight Ten 2.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Pole Setter 6.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Tobacco Road 6.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 My Sixth Sense 10.00 5 9-1
2 2 Royal Urn 12.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Manny Wah 8.00 6 11-1
8 8 Cairo Cat 8.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Mr Wrench It 30.00 6.5 12-1
10 10 Hog Creek Hustle 10.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Drunk as a Skunk 30.00 7.7 15-1
12 12 Everfast 12.00 8.8 17-1
11 11 Synthesis 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Pocahontas S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 It Justhitthe Wire 6.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Serengeti Empress 2.50 2 4-1
2 2 Love My Honey 6.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Splashy Kisses 4.00 4 8-1
8 8 Two Dozen Roses 6.00 6 11-1
4 4 Profound Legacy 20.00 6.1 11-1
10 9 Taylor’s Spirit 8.00 6.6 12-1
12 11 Tapping Pearl 10.00 6.8 13-1
11 10 Saved At Dawn 15.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Lightscameraaction 20.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 My Wynter Rose 50.00 7.6 14-1
7 7 Include Edition 30.00 7.9 15-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.