September 15, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ready and Rich | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bold Proposition | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4A | 4 | Trip Candy | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8A | 8 | Equus Novus | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Distorted Jimmy | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | City Siege | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Math Wizard | 5.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Royal Medallion | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | The Columbus Kid | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 10 | 10 | R One | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Queen’s Bird | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Replete | 12.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3A | 3 | Beach Bum | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4A | 4 | Day Dreamer | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | True to Dixie | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Park Ridge Benny | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | One More Tom | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Toothpic | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Match Play | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Big Iron | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Fourth Quarter | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Tell Your Mama | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Regal Serenade | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fiduciary Values | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Innocent | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Believe Land | 6.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cured by Kitten | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cloche | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dynamic Miss | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Alexa’s Gold | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | My Little Stormy | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 6A | 6 | Rushingirl | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Johny’s Bobby | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5A | 5 | Kaziranga | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Borracho | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Exchequer | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Thetrashmanscoming | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sharp Prospect | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Better Charge It | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Oro de Tejano | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 10A | 10 | Spire | 5.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Thundershook | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 11 | 11 | J Zar | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Omen of Change | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Istillgotit | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Land Battle | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Taruca | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Baffin | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Turner Time | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Eternal Force | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Beautiful Game | 6.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gettin Even | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Charge the Line | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Potential Danger | 12.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Plus Que Parfait | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Chasing Happy | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Curlin Grey | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dictator | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Moonster | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Grandgran | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Night Ops | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Charles T | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Post Close | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Twelfth Labour | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Tom | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Scooter’s Boy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Preamble | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Blue Steel | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Soap Bubble | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Clench | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Locally Owned | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Pantherus Leo | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Edgemont Road | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bourbon Calling | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Kitchi | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9A | 7 | Half Shot | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Open Mind S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Vertical Oak | 1.40 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Miss Kentucky | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Thirteen Songs | 30.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Astrollinthepark | 2.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | P Boo | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Our Majesty | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Courtmewithcarats | 50.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Locust Grove S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Blue Prize (ARG) | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Champagne Problems | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pinch Hit | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mannerly | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tiger Moth | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Streamline | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sailor’s Valentine | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dutch Parrot | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Pacific Pink | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Iroquois S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Tight Ten | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pole Setter | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tobacco Road | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | My Sixth Sense | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Royal Urn | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Manny Wah | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cairo Cat | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mr Wrench It | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Hog Creek Hustle | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Drunk as a Skunk | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Everfast | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Synthesis | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Pocahontas S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | It Justhitthe Wire | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Serengeti Empress | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Love My Honey | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Splashy Kisses | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Two Dozen Roses | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Profound Legacy | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Taylor’s Spirit | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Tapping Pearl | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Saved At Dawn | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lightscameraaction | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My Wynter Rose | 50.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Include Edition | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.