September 15, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Macho Alpha 1.80 2.2 4-1
6 6 Oscarific 4.50 3.3 6-1
7 7 Greeleys Spirit 2.50 3.8 7-1
3 3 Willow Ridge 5.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Admiral Sean 12.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Demand Ransom 6.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Ice Bank 30.00 6.5 12-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 On My Toes 1.40 1.8 3-1
7 7 Glory Train 4.50 3.2 6-1
3 3 Fabriana 4.00 3.4 7-1
6 6 J P’s Gia 5.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Don’t Hold Queens 6.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Peppermint Ice 20.00 6.1 12-1
1 1 Gritty Kitty 12.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Warretta 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Mountain Momma 4.00 2.3 4-1
9 8 Silva Queen 1.80 2.4 5-1
5 5 Mary Jeans Wildcat 5.00 4 8-1
7 6 Lucky At Justice 6.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Hoosessential 10.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Congaree Gal 12.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Prada Storm 15.00 6.6 12-1
8 7 Causing Smiles 30.00 7.4 14-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 All Call 1.60 2.5 5-1
3 3 Always a Catch 5.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 West Village 4.50 4.4 8-1
7 7 Dancing Rock 10.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 McHenry 4.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Fleetway 15.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Mendota 30.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Key to the Bridge 15.00 6.7 13-1
9 9 Candy Carlos 15.00 7.1 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Cooper’s Keeper 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Queenoftheroad 12.00 SCRATCH
6 4 Case Cracker 1.40 1.9 4-1
7 5 Sperling 2.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Greeleys Angel 6.00 3.6 7-1
5 3 Romancin N Dancin 8.00 4.2 8-1
4 2 Away She Glows 15.00 4.3 8-1
8 6 Ice Attack 30.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Lady Temple 2.50 2.8 5-1
8 8 Air Turbulence 4.50 3.3 6-1
2 2 Tinderella 6.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Wildwood Scat 6.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Holy Cookie 5.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Devil’s Rose 12.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Fringe 10.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Tiz Gallatin 12.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 For My Mom 20.00 7.3 14-1
7 7 Sweet Abigail 30.00 8.2 16-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Fulla Blarney 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 More Than A. P. 2.50 2.6 5-1
8 7 Whata Perfect Day 4.00 3 6-1
1 1 Drilliant 8.00 4 7-1
2 2 Lucky Fast 10.00 4.7 9-1
10 9 Mighty Might 8.00 5 9-1
7 6 Extra Medium 12.00 6.6 13-1
6 5 Le Pond 8.00 6.7 13-1
12 11 Courtyard 30.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 Rustic Rick 10.00 7.4 14-1
11 10 Patch’s Lugh 20.00 7.8 15-1
9 8 Swifty Sam 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Hint of Mint 5.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Templesis 30.00 SCRATCH
2 2 V J’s Bet 3.50 2.3 4-1
6 5 Brittney On Blades 6.00 3.5 7-1
11 10 She’s Taken 6.00 4.7 9-1
4 3 Rontos Lily 10.00 4.7 9-1
7 6 Fort Marsh 10.00 5.4 10-1
10 9 Lil Rum Tum 8.00 6.2 12-1
5 4 Lu Sea 30.00 6.4 12-1
8 7 My Darling Sofia 12.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Ready for War 10.00 7.1 13-1
9 8 Kipper Doodle 15.00 8 15-1
13 11 War Diamond 12.00 8.3 16-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Sir Anthony 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Fuelish Behavior 50.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Zanforce 15.00 SCRATCH
7 6 Prairie Rebel 3.00 3 6-1
3 3 Alazan Shiner 6.00 4 7-1
4 4 Travel West 4.00 4 8-1
9 8 Cadet Captain 12.00 4.8 9-1
12 11 Ioya Again 4.50 5.1 10-1
11 10 On the Lam 8.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Franklin County 30.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 House of Cortez 12.00 6.2 12-1
8 7 Hannity 15.00 7.8 15-1
2 2 Amaroq 30.00 8 15-1
10 9 Gold Star Kid 30.00 9.8 19-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Illini Kitten 50.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Jukebox Money 3.00 2.6 5-1
11 11 Ally Song 4.50 4 8-1
5 5 Jami Racer 12.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Kauai Moments 10.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Nifty Nellie 6.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Sweet Annie Cat 5.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Lakota Rose 10.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 Circuit Reboot 12.00 7.2 14-1
12 12 Sharing a Laugh 12.00 8.1 15-1
2 2 In Focus 30.00 8.3 16-1
10 10 Petal Path 30.00 9.4 18-1
3 3 Francis Leal 50.00 10.6 20-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.