September 14, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Praying for a Win | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Robbed in Rio | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bold Esther | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Midnight Melee | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Tango City | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wolfnsheepclothing | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Rare Action Attack | 30.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Pasture Ornament | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Takin the Sloroad | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Montana Kid | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Solar Flair | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Arrogant | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Expect Elprada | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bad Moon | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Trouncer | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Yankee Jake | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | I Am too Wild | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sho Poke | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Unbridled Ruler | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Prince Abubu | 12.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Drayke’s Channel | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Stormin El Prado | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Just Blaze | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dumbmark | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kid Mac Cool | 1.80 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Return of the Rock | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Enchanted Rambam | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rickshaw Express | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dayjur Best | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Colonel Fred | 1.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Warleggan | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Seeking Fast | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | I’mjustblowinsmoke | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Flight Mission | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Trumpified | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | American Success | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Love That Brown | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | River Evangelist | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Funny Questions | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Chicago Blues | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cortege | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Power Walker | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | High On Sugar | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sea Rover | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Suspenders | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Track Magic | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Special Vintage | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Twin Deuce | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Makada | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Headfirst | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Good Wishes | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dance | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mongolian Time | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Rosie Bear | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Positionedtodance | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Royalty Princess | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Riv | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Voodoo Spell | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Singingintheheat | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Let’s Go Mick | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gray Mensch | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Savage Battle | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Liberal Lunacy | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Royal Commish | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Southsider | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Grey Mask | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Saidtomyself | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Legendary Vision | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | My Man Jax | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mummy Troll | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Vic the Boss | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tashkent | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Portico | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Harmony Enhanced | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Crown Regent | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Straight Shooter | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Tiger’s Tip | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Anniversarygold | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.