September 6, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | U S S Altair | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Landing Gear | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Zimmerman | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fort Commander | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Poddubny | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hide the Evidence | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Heavenly Hill | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Church Road | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nook | 1.80 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rose to Glory | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Launch Away | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Conquest Classic | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Curlin’s Prize | 1.80 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Salty Scatt | 1.40 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ben’s Little Cupid | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Paulette | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cholla | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nurse Sadie | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Vasilisa | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Queen of Country | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Appealing Audrey | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Elle’s Town | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Samis Car | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Senorita Tapit | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rainbow Warrior | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kate’s Cat | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | King of the Score | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Amberjack | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Solar Flair | 4.50 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Broadway Brett | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Nobiz Like Sue Biz | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fort Dixie | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gentleman Richie | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Spectacular Act | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Luvin Bullies | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Bet She Wins | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | On Probation | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Aiken to Be | 1.20 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Soul Singer | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bizzee Mischief | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Way too Smarte | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | All Call | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Mendota | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Fleetway | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Half of Manhattan | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Nate the Natural | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Steelman Run | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Prince Cheval | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Dancing Rock | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | He’s Dann Good | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Desierto | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Southern Quality | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Marvelous Sky | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | J Z’s Last Try | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Candy Zip | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | One Way Home | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Silent Fame | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Bar Ryder | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Hold the Door | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Purr’s Along | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mutakddim Road | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Justenufftuff | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Hey Pretty Boy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Franklin County | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | M C Squared | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Royal Commish | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Do Not Enter | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Only Liquor | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Pablo Del Monte | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Blue Wings | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Romeo Lima | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Boom Box | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 9 | Riv | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | No Richie | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Bootleggin | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Flashdance Road | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.