September 3, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Nurse Sadie | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Tap Gun | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ciara | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Good Girl I Am | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Draw It Now | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sunapee | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Avery A. | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bird Key | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | My Curby | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Costly King | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Golden Story | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Prize Native | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Special Concoction | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Roarin Missile | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Oltre’ Oro | 4.50 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lasting Impact | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Northern Fire | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Our Thomas | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tims Hope | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | City Position | 3.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Z U Soon | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Im the Best I Know | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Kid Mac Cool | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Miracle Mountain | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cabin John | 1.60 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | And Won | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cadet Captain | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Call the Colonel | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Something Kinky | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Oh So Terrible | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Mo’s M V P | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Ruby Sioux | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Frozen Hannah | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Chlobee | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Pop By | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Silvera | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Crusader Girl Too | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Northern Alliance | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Glory Train | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Awalkinthemoonlite | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Brewmistress | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 1 | Voluptuous | 1.40 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Tam | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Silent Congrats | 30.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Chica Bonita | 30.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | I’mjustblowinsmoke | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Speared | 1.20 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Antrim’s Giant | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Alpha Boy | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Two Pair | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Seeking Fast | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ghost Position | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Let’s Go Mick | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Vincitore | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Ioya Again | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Trumpi | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Discovered | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Pont Du Gard | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Yourdecisionotmine | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Papa Rizzo | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 9 | Boyfriend Material | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Blue Ridge Scout | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Moment Is Now | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Chief Oakie Dokie | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Harkins Hall | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Flatter the Queen | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Big Dinner | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Summer Castle | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Burnt Bluff | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Prince Arlo | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Campioni | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Maxus | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ferlin Husky | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Cartiac Road | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Round Hill | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | P J’s Awesome | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.