September 1, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Estragon | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Demand Ransom | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Macho Alpha | 1.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Amaroq | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Oscarific | 10.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mr. Stein | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Klassy Karalynn | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Frosty Friend | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | High Power | 1.20 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Endlessopportunity | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Templesis | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Penny Slots | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Special Concoction | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Savie | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Brave Benny | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pale Hose | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Enchanted Rambam | 1.80 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Strong Response | 30.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Two Minute Man | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Twixt and Shout | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Caliente Candy | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kajawa | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mistress At Sea | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sunset Wish | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bell’s the One | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Peruvian Appeal | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | American Biz | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Hero of the Hour | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Antarctic | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Proquestor | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Making a Marc | 1.80 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cloud to Ground | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Attain Success | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Suzdal | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fuelish Behavior | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sho Poke | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Harv Won’t Tap | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Don’task Don’ttell | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Bold Rally | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Blue Sky Kowboy | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Happy Wanderer | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mighty Manfred | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Zambian Dream (CHI) | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Assemblyman | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kinetic Swagger | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gotta Bounce | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | W W Springtime | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dazzling Truths | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Diplome | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Flatster | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Golden Dart | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Letthebigshot Roll | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Imposing Will | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Smokinwatchstopper | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Patriot Drive | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Runningfromthefeds | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Spring Solo | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Side Pocket | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Domikate | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Justenufftuff | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Colonel Fred | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Seeking Fast | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Speared | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Red Kite | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Magic Dragon | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Sacred Legacy | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Workingforaliving | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Keen On Gene | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tapizone | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Love That Brown | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | All Strikes | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Donivan My Boy | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Half of Manhattan | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Dancing Rock | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Giacallure | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | All Call | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Fleetway | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Golden Gift | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Red Corvette | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Pat’s Shoes | 4.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Spanish Justice | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Always a Catch | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Fort Ridge | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.