August 25, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Shoeluv Is Trueluv | 1.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | It’s Springtime | 1.80 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Countess St Michel | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dazzling Charmist | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Blanco Brush | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Kingsbury Dream | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Broadway Brett | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Vapor Viper | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Candyrock | 1.80 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Offlee Fun | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Greeleys Spirit | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Admiral Sean | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Church Road | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Jean Elizabeth | 0.40 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Jolee | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | My Darling Sofia | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Partay | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Way too Smarte | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Roskilde | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Cat’s Runaway | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Mister Maestro | 0.60 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hawk’s Image | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gorgeous George | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kyzan | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Monday Pirate | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Ravin’s Treasure | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | P H Factor | 1.20 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cast a Stone | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mighty Might | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fulla Blarney | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sertoman | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bold Attack | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tuff Attack | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Lancelots Lady | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Purple Heart Road | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Extra Medium | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | D J Mac | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Umusbthstalltoride | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fort Desoto | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Jimmy At Last | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Simsbury | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | P R Radio Star | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Liberal Lunacy | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Karen’s Cove | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Vital | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sandbagger Al | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Silent Fame | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Logi | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Superstar Diva | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Full Count | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lillet | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Natasha Fatale | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Diastole | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Good Mongolia | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | She’s So Needy | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Silver Skyler | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Kauai Moments | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Jukebox Money | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Untruthful Sonnet | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Antalya | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Americanperfection | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ally Song | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lakota Rose | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Nifty Nellie | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Circuit Reboot | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lucky At Justice | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | U Turn the Page | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | September Surprise | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Flatter the Queen | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Return of the Rock | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Stein | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | McHenry | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fist Full | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Starstruck Kitten | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Summer Disco | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stealthy Traveler | 30.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hide the Evidence | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.