August 22, 2018 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – Michael G. Walsh Novice S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Indian Hawk (IRE) | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Boss Man | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mutasaawy | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Swellelegent | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Surprising Soul | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | No Wunder (GB) | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Salix (FR) | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Promises Broken | 1.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Special Risk | 1.40 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | B Three | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Caoimhe | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Say Cin Cin | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Preziosa | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Egoli | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Real Money | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Party With Friends | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Fake Solution | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 5 | Achilles Warrior | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Stroll Daddy | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Halladay | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Vehement | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Tapizars Secret | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Gearhead | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Sky’s Son | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Molly’s Nighthawk | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Frederica | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Hit a Provisional | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | I Like Your Style | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3A | 3 | Dancingwthdaffodls | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 2 | Danielle’s Pride | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Smiles From Sadie | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9A | 4 | Handle With Care | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Lady Darian | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 3 | Uconnmarsh | 30.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Testosterstone | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4A | 4 | Broadway Bay | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Blugrascat’s Smile | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mr. Buff | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5A | 3 | Cause I’m Alex | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | All About Ashley | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Ostrolenka | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Holy Week | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Super Dude | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Zorzor | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Keep Quiet (FR) | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Business Expense | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Trustworthy | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Decisive Triumph | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Admiral Blue | 3.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Total Tap | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Zinger | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | In Denile | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Makin’ Out | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mrs. Orb | 1.80 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Parlapiano | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Adorina | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mohanie | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Causin’ Trouble | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Chutzpah | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sophie N | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Broken Border | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Driven by Speed | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Vortex Road | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Table for Six | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Conquest Hardcandy | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bareeqa | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Alabama Bound | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – John’s Call S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | G Zap | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Exulting | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Mr Maybe | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | You’re to Blame | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Not in Charge | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Securitiz | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Highland Sky | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 8 | Call Provision | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Rocketry | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Gold Shield | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Bronson | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Patterson Cross | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Focus Group | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Wake Forest (GER) | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Harlan Strong (ARG) | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Renown (GB) | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Brass Ring | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Change of Control | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Flion Lynn Lion | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wild Type | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | No Limit Babe | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jazzy J | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bel Cuore | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | The Leeman Dinner | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Karabessa | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sister Emily | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bizness Beauty | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.