August 19, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Kid Mac Cool | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tapizone | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Last Spring | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Drinkwiththeirish | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Magic Dragon | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Changn Fivehundred | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Only Praise Me | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | September Surprise | 1.40 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Greeleys Delight | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cuddle Me | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Annie Time Girl | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Good Luck Dad | 30.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Drinks On Me | 1.40 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Diamondcoat | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Love Shack Baby | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stay Anchored | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mountain Momma | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lemon Drop Twist | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | First Hoosier | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Dona Spey | 1.80 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Special Vintage | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Elusive Bae | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Molly’s Game | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ms Elvira | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Superstar Diva | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Amazing Annie | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Looktheotherway | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Numbers Game | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | American Merlot | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 3 | Her Wild Lifestyle | 1.80 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Hal’s Mischief | 5.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | For My Mom | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Valiant Lady | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Lady Dozer | 30.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | B N a Native Girl | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Yellow Wolf | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Prince Arlo | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Not Chopped Liver | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sea Rover | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Campioni | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cartiac Road | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | New Atlas | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | She’s Coal Fired | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Can She Scoot | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Meetmeforasmoke | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Allaire | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Star of the Market | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Para Vivir | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | La Candelita | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Silver Saver | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Queen Jeanne | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Congaree Gal | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | She’s a Fine Line | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Devine | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | I’ve Got Issues | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Z U Again | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Queen’s All Mine | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Special Conquest | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 11 | 11 | I’m Royale | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hear the Kiss | 30.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Because I’m Olivia | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.