August 17, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Amberjack | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fort Dixie | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Nobiz Like Sue Biz | 2.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Broadway Brett | 3.50 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Electrifying | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Montana Kid | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lasting Impact | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Kate’s Cat | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Stage Direction | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mochi | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Caliente Candy | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Pasture Ornament | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Thunderous Gem | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lavina | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Diamondcoat | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Felt in Pocket | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Na Pali Spirit | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Love On Tides | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Frozen Hannah | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Pop By | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Hart Hills Road | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Romeo O Romeo | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Jukebox Money | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 3 | Yourdecisionotmine | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Supermans Cape | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Cabin John | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Zanforce | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Contraction | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Smart Like a Fox | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Demand Ransom | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hansen Gone West | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bartbaalu | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Katano | 4.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Two Nephews | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fatal Strike | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Headfirst | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Dance | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Warretta | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ghost Train | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | She’s Fine Tuned | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Eva Destruction | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hoosessential | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Royalty Princess | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Little Baltar | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Boom Box | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Royal Commish | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Unscathed | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Bajan Rhythm | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Do Not Enter | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Run to Freedom | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Wake Up Joe | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Stormy Going | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Savemethelastdance | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Love Your Buttons | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Another Richie | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bulldog of Bergen | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Spectacular Road | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Richiesgotswagger | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ed’s Rocket | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Purely Given | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Afleet Spring | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.