August 12, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Exactness | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Arrogant | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Barnyard Fiddler | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Enchanted Rambam | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Golden Story | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Roarin Missile | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Brave Benny | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ava Atticus | 1.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sweet Annie Cat | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Arch Away | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Silva Queen | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Countess St Michel | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Twin Deuce | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Do Not Enter | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Good Bye Greg | 1.20 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bushrod | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Gorgeous George | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Malraux | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Speightsong | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Welovecandy | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mooose | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Gwendalyn Sue | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cloche | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | J. A. Curlin | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dona Spey | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Good Girl I Am | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Regal Serenade | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Indigirka | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rehearsal Dinner | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Bold Friends | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Our Thomas | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | A. P. Royal | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sensational Zip | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Unbridled Ruler | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Jonathan McD | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Northern Fire | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Straight Shooter | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Fuelish Behavior | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Quinn Murphy | 2.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dancing Waves (IRE) | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | She’sadowntowngirl | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hide and Street | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Odachi | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Temple | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Pura Lica | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Moon Over Cabo | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | For My Mom | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | On My Toes | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Air Turbulence | 4.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Running Vicky | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Holy Cookie | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Greeley’s Demon | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Glory Train | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hope N Wishes | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Real de Jalpa | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fringe | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Maria’s Moment | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Game Time Decision | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Speed Devil | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Prairie Chick | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Rake It Up | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Shamelessfi | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Checotah | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | She’s Ventastic | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Konza Khrome | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dorothe Marie | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.