August 11, 2018 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Four Knights | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Gosilently | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Prognostication | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lemonist | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bootlegger (FR) | 4.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rockin Jo | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tizpure | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hyperlapse (IRE) | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9A | 9 | Southern Phantom | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Exchequer | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3A | 3 | Speed App | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Chief Executive | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Unionizer | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Baffin Bay | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Preacher Marsee | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Johny’s Bobby | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Laughing Fox | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Adirondack S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Lyrical Lady | 1.20 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mucho Amor | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sue’s Fortune | 4.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Virginia Eloise | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Guacamole | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Grandma Gertie | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6A | 6 | Rock On Kitten | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Malthael | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Noble Nebraskan | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Medina Ridge | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Ian Glass | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14A | 14 | Speedy Solution | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Shootin the Breeze | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Teachable Moment | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Winning Factor | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 15 | 8 | Starting Point | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Opry | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Cairo Cat | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Majestic Hero | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Twelfthofneverland | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Agitator | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Rapt | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Lunaire | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Dr. Edgar | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Abatement (GB) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Another | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Payne | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Mesotherm | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Gray Sky | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Unlockthepotential | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Greek Alphabet | 4.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | The J Y | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Morocco | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 6 | Fifty | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Clutch Cargo | 30.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Cadron Flats | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Empire of War | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Road Home | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | A Thread of Blue | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Derby Date | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Network Effect | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Americano | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Chase and Colorado | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Grassetto | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Danyelli | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Aunt Babe | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Munchkin Money | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Conquest Tizfire | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Ultima D | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | La Naturel (IRE) | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | First Appeal | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Queen Mum | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Majestic Won | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sister Sophia | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | A Great Time | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Violent Times | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Designing | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Fourstardave H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Weekend Hideaway | 0.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Heart to Heart | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Delta Prince | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Made You Look | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Yoshida (JPN) | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Divisidero | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Voodoo Song | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Patternrecognition | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mask | 3.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Breaking the Rules | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Spikes Shirl | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Storm Runner | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Always a Suspect | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Phi Beta Express | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Fasig-tipton Lure S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Secret Passage | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | You’re to Blame | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Dalarna | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Inspector Lynley | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Conquest Panthera | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Projected (GB) | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Zennor | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Forge (GB) | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mr Cub | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blacktype (FR) | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Sardonyx | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | I Like Your Style | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Frederica | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Molly’s Nighthawk | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Zetetic | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Shanghai Dreams | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Super Mama | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Youth Gone Wild | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Grand Banks | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Hit a Provisional | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Adorable Song | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Dancingwthdaffodls | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 4 | Crater Rim | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Fancycase | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Queens Wild | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 3 | Protect the King | 30.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.