August 11, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | High Power | 2.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rachelgotstephen | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Frosty Friend | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sturn Donna | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Littlesummerprairy | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ice Princess Emily | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Margarita Attack | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Krististiketmaster | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | The Dogmen | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shared | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | W W Springtime | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hide the Demon | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ship of the Line | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Grit to Glory | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Drilliant | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bold Attack | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tuff Attack | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Sharp Money | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hero of the Hour | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Duchossois | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Thunder Down Under | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Wicked Gem | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fifth Ace | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sailor Brodee | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dixie Dean | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Chicago Blues | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Golden Dart | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Moonlight Mischief | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Imposing Will | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Belfast Cowboy (IRE) | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Runningfromthefeds | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Savage Battle | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Southsider | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Pasture Ornament | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Rare Action Attack | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Kate’s Cat | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Kajawa | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | More Than Gracious | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Crafty’s Dream | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | American Biz | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Take the Over | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Winning Envelope | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Twixt and Shout | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chrome Attack | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Khairiya | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Lady Di | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Semper Frey | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Colonel Fred | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Speared | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sacred Legacy | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Maxus | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | All Strikes | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Two Pair | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Camalus | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kauai Moments | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Justenufftuff | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Gold Hawk | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Stormy Going | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | All Call | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Always a Catch | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Golden Gift | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Diamondmaze | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chas the Man | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Dancing Rock | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Prue | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fleetway | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Candy Carlos | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Spanish Justice | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | He’s Dann Good | 30.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | P J’s Awesome | 30.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Bruce D. Memorial S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Nobrag Justfact | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | The Tabulator | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Nottoway | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Strollin the Bayou | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Chief Oakie Dokie | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Navy Armed Guard | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | P R Radio Star | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wile E Peyote | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sir Anthony | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Secretariat S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Analyze It | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Hunting Horn (IRE) | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Untamed Domain | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Captivating Moon | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Lucius Tiberius (IRE) | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Sniper Kitten | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Real Story | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Platinum Warrior (IRE) | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bandua | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ming (IRE) | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pont Du Gard | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Carrick | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Dubby Dubbie | 30.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Beverly D. S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sistercharlie (IRE) | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Athena (IRE) | 3.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dona Bruja (ARG) | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Daddys Lil Darling | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fourstar Crook | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Inflexibility | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nyaleti (IRE) | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Thais (FR) | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Oh So Terrible | 50.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Arlington Million Xxxvi S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Spring Quality | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Divisidero | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 8 | Robert Bruce (CHI) | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Oscar Performance | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Deauville (IRE) | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Almanaar (GB) | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Money Multiplier | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Catcho En Die (ARG) | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Century Dream (IRE) | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Circus Couture (IRE) | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Twenty Four Seven | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Pucker Up S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Diamondcoat | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 12 | Beyond Blame | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cosmic Burst | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pamina | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Secret Message | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dark Artist | 4.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Kabella | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Princess Warrior | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | A. A. Azula’s Arch | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Smart Shot | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | In the Mood | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Deadline | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Madame Milan | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.