August 4, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Maxi’s Taxi | 1.20 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Wave On Wave | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Demand Ransom | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Willow Ridge | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Raisedonrocknroll | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Guard Your Grill | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Blackhawk Warrior | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fatal Strike | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Superstar Leo | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mister Maestro | 0.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hawk’s Image | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Takin the Sloroad | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Nyoman | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cairn | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | American Merlot | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Queenoftheroad | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hal’s Mischief | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Looktheotherway | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Star of the Market | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | McKinli’sbabyblues | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | B N a Native Girl | 20.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Devout Type | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Silver Saver | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Numbers Game | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Bramble Queen | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sing One Song | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tannah’blu | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Chantses | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Itsagimme’s Girl | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | For My Mom | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ally Song | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Antalya | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Queen Jeanne | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Aviating | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ben’s Little Cupid | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Shes Just Capital | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Glitterati Gal | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Disrespectful | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dame of Thrones | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Silver Skyler | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Moon Over Montana | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Hot Dad | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Aktabantay (GB) | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Surf Shack | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Omega Moon | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Funny Questions | 10.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Purely Boy | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Moonlight Mischief | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Fort Ridge | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | River Cactus | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Chipollino | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | McHenry | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Greyt Oak | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Flatter the Queen | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Yellow Wolf | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Campioni | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Return of the Rock | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jericho | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Summer Castle | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Papa Caliente | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Stealthy Traveler | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Trumpi | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Triple Dog Dare | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Vital | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ioya Again | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Let’s Go Mick | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Papa Rizzo | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pass the Gravy | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Awesome Arion | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Best You Ever Seen | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Homefield | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | More Than A. P. | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lucky Fast | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Air Balloon | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hurricane Hank | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Whata Perfect Day | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Courtyard | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | D J Mac | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | My Church | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.