July 29, 2018 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Promises Broken | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Summer Punch | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lou’s Chardonnay | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Carry Your Heels | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tough Old Bird | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Moment of Triumph | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dream Fever | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Untaken | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Hardly Mate | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Miko | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Arch of Troy | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Ultimate Cause | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Fast Track Kathern | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Magician’s Vanity | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Love | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Gia Michael | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vip Nation | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Tiffanys Freud | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Leah’s Dream | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Glossy | 1.40 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Texas Music | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Factoring | 1.80 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Paranoia | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Angel Food | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Jo Jo’s Candy | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Always Shopping | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Style and Grace | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Merada | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Into the South | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Rotate | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Love My Honey | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Introspection | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Face It | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Anazara | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 8 | Tapping Colors | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | My Bronx Tail | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Alternative Energy | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Halsey | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Dig Deeper | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Length | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Special Thing | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mucho Glory | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14B | 14 | Zap Daddy | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16A | 16 | Proven Reserves | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Rugbyman | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Factor This | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Tactical Pursuit (IRE) | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Vegas Kitten | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Strike Me Down | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pony Up | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Lemonade Thursday | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Own Agenda | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Strike | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ego Trip | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Prioritize | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Industrial Logic | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 3B | 3 | Cullum Road | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Outback Bob | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Lunar Beauty | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Have Another | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2A | 2 | Runaway Lute | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Souper Catch | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 5 | Tommy T | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6A | 3 | Honorable Treasure | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Gray Sky | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Silver Dust | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Uno Mas Modelo | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Almithmaar | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Field of Courage | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Jewel Can Disco | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Zoot Suit | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 8 | Rocket Heat | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | English Minister | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Battle in Seattle (FR) | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Vici | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Maniacal | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Forman the Foreman | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | New York’s Finest | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Spring to the Sky | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | End Play | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Shuvee S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Frost Wise | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Wow Cat (CHI) | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Pacific Wind | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ivy Bell | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Farrell | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Verve’s Tale | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tiger Moth | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Singapore Trader | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Construct | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Golconda | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Lemon Blitz | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Cross Multiply | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Spa Jazz | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Slewacandy | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Powerstroke | 3.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Bigsouljoel | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Victory’s Cash | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | There Goes Jose | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Magnetron | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Won’t Be Missed | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Stag of Sylvia | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Last Chant | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blue Skies Forever | 50.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.