July 28, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Eva Destruction | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Ghost Train | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Greeleys Delight | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Risk E Lifestyle | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | J P’s Gia | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Rain Expression | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cuddle Me | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Macho Alpha | 1.60 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mr. Stein | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Admiral Sean | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Savie | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Oscarific | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ready to Fight | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Southsider | 1.80 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Unbridled Ruler | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sharp Money | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Little Mighty Man | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Z U Soon | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hammers Thirsty | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Widdle Giant | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Exotica | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Moonrags | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Her Hush Money | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Atlantic | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Urban Design | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lancelots Lady | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rosa Star | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | You Split Tens | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | House of Cortez | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rich Tradition | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dr. Bombay | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Behind Enemy Lines | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Momma Joann | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tims Hope | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Temple Zip | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Archiemyboy | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Wile E Peyote | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sir Anthony | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rio Seco | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hannity | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Switheral | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Zanforce | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Shaboom | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hide and Street | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Showersofblessings | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | She’s Coal Fired | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hey Hey | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sullyvin’s G G | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Three Cat Rules | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Allaire | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Para Vivir | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Bird Key | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Lemon Princess | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gwendalyn Sue | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Cloche | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Salty Scatt | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Antalya | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ciara | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Valya’s Vengeance | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Rehearsal Dinner | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Compact Powder | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.