July 26, 2018 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – A. P. Smithwick Memorial Steeplechase H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Personal Start | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Modem (GB) | 1.80 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | All the Way Jose | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Show Court (IRE) | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Iranistan | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Overwhelming | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Oskar Denarius (IRE) | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | El Cucuy | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gravitating | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Generalist | 2.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6A | 6 | Huracan | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | The Chamo | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2A | 2 | Tom’s Music | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Brightest Star | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Ego | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Star That Shines | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Quality Time (IRE) | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Touch of Bling | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Overnegotiate | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Black Canary | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | No Need to Appeal | 1.20 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Picture Day | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Annie Rocks | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lezendary | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | China Rider | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Paddydunalot | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Appreciate | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Red Curls | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Umoveover | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Sweet Offer | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Love to Share | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Summer Fling | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 5 | Fiduciary Values | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | La Fee Verte | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Mrs Vargas | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Miss Loyalty | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Rag Top | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Toohottoevenspeak | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3A | 3 | Got Even | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Karma Delight | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6A | 4 | Imperatore | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Top of the Page | 1.40 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Prophet’s Cat | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Brimstone | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kerry Boy | 30.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Alberobello | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tigalalu | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Indy Union | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Quick Quick Quick | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hail | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Land Mine | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Iona Mobe | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Riverboat Gambler | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Big Muddy | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Formula One | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fully Vested | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lunar Phase | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | The Dustman | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Into a Hot Spot | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Apollo’s Leap | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Leinster | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Terrible Day (ARG) | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Admiral Blue | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Hollywood Handsome | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Secret House | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Mills | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | G Zap | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Doyouknowsomething | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Battle Midway | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – John Morrissey S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Runaway Lute | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Gold for the King | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Eye Luv Lulu | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Weekend Hideaway | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Long Haul Bay | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Celtic Chaos | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | T Loves a Fight | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mighty Zealous | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Sweeter Than Wine | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Foggy Kitten | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14A | 14 | Always Shopping | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Global Exchange | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Trailblazer | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Two Shakes | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13A | 8 | Guacamole | 1.20 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 7 | Liora | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Devious Charm | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Paradise Retained | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Quiet Company | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Super Simple | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Lido Key | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Isabelle’s Joy | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.