July 22, 2018 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Tied Up | 1.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pure Praise | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Proportionality | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Northernstreetgal | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Giant Boxer | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Greasedlightning | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Status Asthmaticus | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5B | 5 | Rotate | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6A | 5 | Chocolate Kisses | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Toy Moon | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Aunt Ashley | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Two Dozen Roses | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sweet Carolina | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10B | 9 | Glaze | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ghostly Beauty | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Seventh Planet | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sippican Harbor | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | No Need to Appeal | 0.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | La Moneda | 1.40 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Dolce Lili | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Complicit | 2.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lady Joan | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ponti Scheme | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Riley’s Choice | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Adulation | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Benefactor | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | The Red Dude | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Truly a Moon Shot | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cavallotto | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Three to Thirteen | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Light the Vow | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Espresso Caliente | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Fireball Shot | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Domain | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Point to Remember | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Stuart Hall | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wooderson | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Top Me Off | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Stealth | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Zealous | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Shekky Shebaz | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Change of Venue | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Ventry Bay | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Fuel the Bern | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Win With Pride | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mohican | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bam Bam Blu | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Wet Your Whistle | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | No Regrets | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Heldatgunpoint | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Big Birthday | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Golden Award | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | French Empire | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Communal | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mybigitalianfriend | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Say It Softly | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ascot Walk | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Celia’s Song | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kingdom’s Queen | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Critique | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | She Doesn’t Mind (FR) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Dancing Breeze (IRE) | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Jaunt | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lion in Wait | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Guerriere (IRE) | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Transaction Tax | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Stainless | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Queen Mum | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Remarqued | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Coaching Club American Oaks
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Monomoy Girl | 0.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Eskimo Kisses | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Midnight Bisou | 1.40 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gio Game | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Chocolate Martini | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Compression | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Carnival Lass | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Tapping Colors | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Malarkey | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Kidoro | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Competitionofideas | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Asticou Trail | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | East Moon | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Quaff | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Tap Tap Taparoo | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Keota | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | No Deal | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | That’s Speightful | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Semper Sententiae | 15.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.