July 21, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Can’t Stop the Cat | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Cloudcraze | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Ravin’s Treasure | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Manny Wah | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Bizzee Channel | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Enzoexpress | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Sayin Grace | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | The Dogmen | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | D J Mac | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Oltre’ Oro | 1.40 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Special Concoction | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fist Full | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Show’em Pop | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Limestone | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Two Minute Man | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Spectacular Act | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | The Sligo Poet | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Greeley’s Demon | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hal’s Mischief | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Posh Ruler | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mystique Artiste | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dorothe Marie | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Precious Kowgirl | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Regent Diamond | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Gray Mensch | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | R Fast Life | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Harlanday | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Braden’s Position | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | G. C. Crackerjack | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | President Elect | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bulldog of Bergen | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Good Bye Greg | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Shogood | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Malraux | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Voodoo Spell | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Strike Quiet | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bushrod | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Carson Kan | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Welovecandy | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Staria Peach | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dance | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Crazy Lady | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Unbridled Atlantic | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Templesis | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | No Smokin Here | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sister Warrior | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dazzling Charmist | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Shoeluv Is Trueluv | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Drama Run | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lethal Leanne | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Valiant Lady | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | She’s Fine Tuned | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Twin Deuce | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | It’s Springtime | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Daneira | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Fort Dixie | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Takin the Sloroad | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Spring Up | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Purely Boy | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Golden Gift | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Five Green Stars | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | West Village | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Prue | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chas the Man | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dancing Rock | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Storming the Beach | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Regal Kitten | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Key to the Bridge | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Shakurr | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Yellow Wolf | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Maxus | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sacred Legacy | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | All Strikes | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gary Luke | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Speared | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Reap | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Alpha Boy | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ghost Position | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Two Nephews | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.