July 20, 2018 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Italian Charm | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Believe in Luck | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Nobody Move | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hardly a Secret | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Turco Bravo (CHI) | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Halloween Horror | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Too Fast to Pass | 20.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bad Student | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Aquariva | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Chillinwithfriends | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Classy to D’ Bone | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Too Foofoo for You | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bank Examiner | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mike’s Girl | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Drynachan | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Caralicious | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Molly’s Party | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shady Shady Shady | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wicked Waters | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Andarta | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Big Brown Cat | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Strong Side | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Monteleone | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sicilia Mike | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Fortythreeoeight N | 8.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Comeoncomeoncat | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Formal Start | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Infield Is In | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rogue Patriot | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Top Me Off | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Teryn It Up | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Azzedine (FR) | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Dominant Strategy | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Big Agenda | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Eagle Pass | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Clyde’s Runner | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Shiny Copper Penny | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Top Czar | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11A | 11 | Always Shopping | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Wild Type | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mertz | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Blahnik | 2.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lyrical Lady | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | She’s Got It All | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Winandyourin Gin | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Brass Ring | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Teletype | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Princess Trina | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Arms Wide Open | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Cypriana | 3.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Laney | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Mimosa | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dancing All Night | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Palladian Bridge | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bluegrass Jamboree | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hay Field | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cosita Mia | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Longstocking | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Oldfashioned Style | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Hollywood Cat | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Starlite Mission | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Cha Cha Heels | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Pauseforthecause | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sweet August Lady | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cumbria | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Myhartblongstodady | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Way Smart | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Giant Zinger | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Havana Affair | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Cartwheel | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Unbridledadventure | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Dancingwithpaynter | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Geranium | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Peaches and Spice | 30.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Schuylerville S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Eyeinthesky | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Catherinethegreat | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Serengeti Empress | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Lady Apple | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nonna Madeline | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Blame the Frog | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Congrats Gal | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tapping Pearl | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fightress | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lonely Road | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Lake George S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Nootka Sound | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Daddy Is a Legend | 1.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Goodthingstaketime (IRE) | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Altea (FR) | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Heavenly Love | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Punked (IRE) | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Andina Del Sur | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Going Out | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2A | 2 | Ride On Faith | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13A | 13 | Lookin At Blessing | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Prognostication | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | County Court | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Hello Holiday | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dark Energy | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Jo’s Bold Cat | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Shamsaan | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cape Angel | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lusitano | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Rockin Jo | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Double Deep | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Foolish Ghost | 50.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.