July 14, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Partay | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Lil Rum Tum | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | My Mertie | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Jean Elizabeth | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Church Road | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Shezahotmama | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Prairie Chick | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Seeyouatthedisco | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tam | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sanilac | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Catherine Eugenia | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Celtic Gold | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Greeleys Angel | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Artic Vortex | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Para Vivir | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hurraca | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | New Legend (KOR) | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sensational Zip | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sailor Brodee | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Meanwhile | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sharp Money | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | I Am too Wild | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | A. P. Royal | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Milardo | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Absolutely Holy | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Orcus | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Prince Cheval | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mendota | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Landing Gear | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Prize Native | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Montana Kid | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Arrogant | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Under the Table | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Zaphical | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rake It Up | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Odachi | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hey Hey | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | American Merlot | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Posh Ruler | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | More Monique | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Wind Cheater | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lighten Up Frances | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sweet Abigail | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Moon Over Cabo | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Heir Ball | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Diamonds At Dawn | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | War Diamond | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | On Probation | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lu Sea | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kalispell | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Flash N Go | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sugarsugarsugar | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Drama Run | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Petal Path | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Jinx Johnson | 6.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Don’t Tell Brandi | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Running Vicky | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Dark Bloom | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Miss Bold Cat | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Royalty Princess | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Ghost Train | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Americanperfection | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Circuit Reboot | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lakota Rose | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fringe | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Track Magic | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Checotah | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Applique | 4.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Chantses | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tannah’blu | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Feisty Chi Chi | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Brown Eyed Blues | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bramble Queen | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Teach Me Tonight | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sea Diva | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Northern Alliance | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Royal’s Position | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Countess St Michel | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | No Smokin Here | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Jami Racer | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Aviating | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Have the Facts | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kauai Moments | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Glitterati Gal | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Last Surprize | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ben’s Little Cupid | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ice Princess Emily | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Z U Again | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Splashs Showbiz | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Shes Just Capital | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bold Drama | 50.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.