July 6, 2018 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Prudent Hero | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Bayful | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Richiesonarampage | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Im the Best I Know | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Snallygaster | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Perfect Joe | 30.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Red Prince | 30.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Word of Truth | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | My Fouroone Kplan | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Chique to Chique | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Case Cracker | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Doggerwinii | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Supercede | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Fionetta | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Saturday’s Song | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Darlin Rosie | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Controversy | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Skycraft | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Handsome Harve | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rich Tradition | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Red Kite | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Workingforaliving | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Big Al | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dyna Ghost | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Orange | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Devileye | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Malraux | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shogood | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Aktabantay (GB) | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Welovecandy | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bushrod | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Royal Commish | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Spectacular Road | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Strike Quiet | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Contraction | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Marvelous Sky | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Just Blaze | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Soloist | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bar Ryder | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Candyrock | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Connor Christopher | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | W W Russian Gold | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Straight Up Smarty | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Sacred Canyon | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 7 | Na Pali Spirit | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Glittering Jewel | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Kleeve Edge | 10.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | I Got the Boy | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Something Kinky | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Market Top | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bubuzela | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Air Turbulence | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Golden Dart | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | In the Chamber | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | All Call | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Moonlight Mischief | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Tiz Samurai | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Half of Manhattan | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Always a Catch | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Prue | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Fleetway | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Red Corvette | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Sharp Money | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 11 | Chuck’s Dream | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Warrior Chief | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Silent Fame | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Unbridled Ruler | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Hammers Thirsty | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Auchincloss | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Attain Success | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Straight Shooter | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Southsider | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Temple Zip | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Little Mighty Man | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Hide the Evidence | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | U S S Altair | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Way | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Estragon | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cartiac Road | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Orcus | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Tambov | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Zimmerman | 4.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kielbasa | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ready to Fight | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.