June 30, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Unstabled | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Kate’s Golden Dude | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | King Abner | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Texas Munny Man | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | All Hansens Ondeck | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Electric Avenue | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Myhotrodlincoln | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Fluminense | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Manny Wah | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ricochet Bay | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Blackjack Jedi | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bucktail Spinner | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mr Wrench It | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Slick It Up | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Serengeti | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Toothpic | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Taruca | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 4 | Dreamzapper | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Honor Mission | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Drop Kick | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Undercover Lover | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Potential Danger | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Kada | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Starry Affair | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Shacklette | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rumandice | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Looking At You | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Indicating | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Runestone | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Puffer Fish | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | She’s Got It All | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Mr Darcy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Dapper Sam | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Tres Equis | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Zapperini | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 9 | Son of a Saint | 4.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Go Navy Go | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sky Promise | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Jailhouse Kitten | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Soul Beam | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Irritator | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Indium | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Marksman | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Blue Ridge Scout | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Soul of the Hero | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Fireball Shot | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Making a Marc | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Stuart Hall | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Love Nest | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Meistermind | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rushin Tothecircle | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gray Nile | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Arkadag | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Debutante S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | War Ballad | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Restless Rider | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hay Dilly | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Shanghai Rain | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | O’Keeffe | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Beach Getaway | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Wynter Rose | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Mission | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Payntermaniac | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Mo Justice | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Clever Serve | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Bridaled Temper | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Our Closure | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Bella Belle | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 7 | Breaking Beauty | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Don’t Tell Marge | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Deadline | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Smart Shot | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Tropical Wave | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Decant | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Ellens Birthday | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sistas Ready | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Tiz My Lady | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | One Mean Man | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Rocking the Boat | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 10 | Iconic | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hint of Roses | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Big Dollar Bill | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Tapsolute | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hollywood Handsome | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Cherry Wine | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Phat Man | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Great Minds | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Rocky Tough | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Casses Story | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Kelly’s Landing Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Requite | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Chief Cicatriz | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Cool Arrow | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Warrior’s Club | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Storm Advisory | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mr. Crow | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | C Z Rocket | 12.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Awesome Saturday | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lookin for a Kiss | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Harmac | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Bashford Manor S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Tales of Chaucer | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Toothless Wonder | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Dalliance | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Cat Addiction | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Overanalyzer | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sir Truebadour | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Weiland | 6.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shanghaied Roo | 4.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Baytown Glory | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Eye Cloud | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | The Song of John | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mr. Granite | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mr Chocolate Chip | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Playin’ Favorites | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Awe Emma | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Causewaysfly | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Excellent Sunset (IRE) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Flashly | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Absolute Love | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Victory Garden | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hot Zone | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Thesweetesttaboo | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Flat Meadow | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Natasha Fatale | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Bourbon Gleam | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Maisie | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Persephone’s Dawn | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Scattered Rain | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Let’s Roll | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rushingirl | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.