Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, June 29, 2018

June 29, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Katie the Cutie 4.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Ritzy Lass 2.50 2.9 6-1
1 1 What What What 1.00 3 6-1
2 2 Dancing Waves (IRE) 5.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Cape Diva 20.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Princess Lu Lu 10.00 3.8 7-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Serve 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 News Box 2.50 3.2 6-1
6 5 Doc Kane 5.00 3.2 6-1
7 6 Tenkoz 8.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Doctor Lee 3.50 3.9 7-1
1 1 One Fine Ride 3.00 4 7-1
4 4 Speightstime 8.00 4.8 9-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 La Fee Verte 3.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Sugar Included 2.50 3.6 7-1
6 6 Claire’s Kitty 4.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Mine Mine Mine 6.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Iris Dancer 3.50 4.6 9-1
5 5 Key Moment 8.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Don’t Tell Lydia 12.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Kristizar 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Champagne Anyone 10.00 SCRATCH
8 6 Tapping Pearl 4.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Merada 3.50 3.7 7-1
2 2 Lady T N T 5.00 3.7 7-1
10 8 Martian 6.00 4.2 8-1
9 7 Chikara 10.00 4.5 8-1
3 3 Sally’s Curlin 8.00 5.3 10-1
6 5 First to Dance 12.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Into the South 10.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 12 Cherry Wine 8.00 SCRATCH
1 3 Kitten’s Karma 3.50 SCRATCH
12 13 Tapsolute 4.00 SCRATCH
9 10 Hint of Roses 3.00 SCRATCH
8 9 Phat Man 5.00 SCRATCH
2B 14 Term of Art 12.00 SCRATCH
10 11 Rocky Tough 8.00 SCRATCH
7 6 Vigilante 3.00 2.6 5-1
6 5 Krampus 2.50 2.7 5-1
5 4 Special Ops 3.00 3.2 6-1
1A 7 Creative Courage 3.50 4.4 8-1
3 1 Zorzor 8.00 5 9-1
2 3 Turf Titan 12.00 5.2 10-1
4 2 All Right 12.00 6.3 12-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Sacred Walk 5.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Spanish Mane 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 National Pride 3.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Red Kite 12.00 SCRATCH
10 6 Bodie Tap 6.00 2.9 5-1
6 3 Got Gold 4.00 3.2 6-1
11 7 Mt. Rushmore 8.00 3.8 7-1
9 5 Satellite 12.00 3.9 7-1
8 4 Botswana 20.00 5.2 10-1
3 1 Good Offense 8.00 5.3 10-1
12 8 Data Gold 20.00 6 11-1
5 2 Positive Vibes 15.00 6.6 12-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Triple Dog Dare 2.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Teletap 3.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Long On Luck 5.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Soul P Say 4.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Tizabreeze 6.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Dreamer’s Point 6.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Moneymeister 15.00 4.9 9-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Saved At Dawn 4.00 3.1 6-1
10 10 Princesse Rafaela 1.80 3.2 6-1
8 8 Princess Causeway 10.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Mustard 8.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 My Candy Crush 5.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Somewhere 6.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Dearest Ella 12.00 6.1 12-1
7 7 Ginny B 10.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Battle Angel 8.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Molto Bella 12.00 8.4 16-1
2 2 Actif Vows 15.00 8.7 16-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Jimmy D 12.00 SCRATCH
15 15 King Valero 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Limation 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Event Driven 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Watch Me Whip 4.00 SCRATCH
10 10 First Spring 3.50 2.5 5-1
11 11 Conscripted 10.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Portal 10.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Bantu 8.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Hot Springs 3.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Plug Catcher 12.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Bourbon Country 15.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Burnin Daylight 20.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Sekondi 10.00 7 13-1
1 1 Fred’stwirlincandy 15.00 8.8 17-1
5 5 Giant Honor 20.00 8.9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 True Dream 1.80 2.6 5-1
6 6 Bo Peep 3.00 3 6-1
8 8 Princess Warrior 4.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Good Creation 5.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Auspicious Babe 6.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Over Thinking 15.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Miz K 12.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Sydney Freeman 20.00 7.1 13-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Imperial Express 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Tapit City 12.00 SCRATCH
9 8 Believeinholidays 4.00 2.5 5-1
12 11 Yondering 5.00 4.8 9-1
6 5 Scat Big Dad 4.50 5.1 10-1
8 7 Victory Lane 8.00 5.3 10-1
4 3 Valycove 4.50 5.5 10-1
3 2 Thunder Mesa 5.00 5.6 11-1
10 9 Hurry Back 10.00 5.6 11-1
2 1 Makeamericagreat 8.00 6.5 12-1
11 10 Gottsacker 50.00 6.5 12-1
7 6 Mjolnir 20.00 8 15-1
5 4 Taranto 10.00 8.4 16-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.